- The Chiefs are -5.5 point favorites vs the Vikings
- Total (Over/Under): 53 points
- Watch the game on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (1-3) on Oct. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this Week 5 matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. Vikings Over/Under is 53 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -5.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -250 |
| Vikings | +5.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +190 |
Chiefs vs. Vikings Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 5 game with 65.8% confidence.
Chiefs vs Vikings Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread with 56.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Vikings, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this Week 5 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- K.J. Osborn has hit the Longest Reception Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- T.J. Hockenson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- T.J. Hockenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Vikings Best Bets:
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.49% ROI).
- Chiefs are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 5.96% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI
Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings went 1-2 (-1.15 Units / -26.44% ROI).
- Vikings are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -50.79% ROI
- Vikings are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Vikings are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings
The Chiefs are undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .555.
The Chiefs are 14-7 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .284.
The Chiefs are 8-1 (.889) after a loss since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .463.
The Chiefs are 8-3 (.727) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .296.
Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Vikings were undefeated (9-0) when within 7 points at the two minute warning in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .492.
The Vikings were undefeated (8-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .497.
The Vikings are 1-3 (.250) this season — tied for 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Vikings are 9-2 (.818) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .494.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have scored on 0% of their drives in the first quarter this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Chiefs defense has allowed scores on 10% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — fifth-best in NFL.
The Vikings have 41 touchdown passes since the 2022 season — third-most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 37 passing TDs since the 2022 season — tied for most in NFL.
Vikings RBs have averaged just 5.6 yards after the catch this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just 4.2 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — best in NFL.
The Chiefs have been successful on 49.2% of plays they have run since the 2022 season — second-best in NFL. Vikings have allowed their opponents to be successful on 45.0% of plays since the 2022 season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 50.4% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2022 season — best in NFL. Vikings have allowed successful plays on 51.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2022 season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have thrown for 6,284 passing yards in 21 games (299.2 YPG) since the 2022 season — best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 259.5 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — second-worst in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have not recorded a TD in 9 drives in the 4th quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 40% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 50% since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats
The Vikings have 13 of 71 (18%) first downs have come on the ground (18%) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Vikings have thrown for 11 TDs this season — most in NFL.
The Vikings have 5 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Vikings have thrown the ball 65% of the time (157 Pass Attempts/240 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 52% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Chiefs defense allowed 27 TD passes in the red zone in the 2022 season — most in NFL.
Only 7% of the plays run against the Chiefs have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a passer rating of just 66.1 on 3rd and short (66 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 100.9.
Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats
The Vikings defense has blitzed on 28% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Vikings defense has allowed 205.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 158.0.
The Vikings defense has blitzed on 33% of plays on 1st down this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
The Vikings defense has blitzed on 30% of plays on Early Downs this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
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