- The Colts are a 3-point home favorite against the Dolphins.
- The Colts have won seven straight home games following a division win.
- My Colts vs. Dolphins prediction is for the Dolphins to cover the spread.
The Colts will go for its fourth win in five games with a Week 7 home game against the Dolphins.
Indy snatched a 20-17 road win over the Titans in Week 6. That win moved the Colts to 1-2 in the division and 3-3 on the season.
Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins team will look to carry over its positive momentum from Week 5 after a Week 6 bye week. Most recently, the Dolphins earned a 15-10 win over the Patriots.
Bet on Colts vs. Dolphins and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 7 Odds: Colts vs. Dolphins
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | +3 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | +140 |
| Colts | -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | -165 |
Colts vs. Dolphins Prediction
Based on the tendencies of the Colts offense and Miami’s sneaky good defensive record, my Colts vs. Dolphins prediction is the Dolphins Spread (+3.5, -110).
I’m not sure bettors are giving the Dolphins defense the credit it deserves.
Miami has experienced its fair share of struggles, but it has mostly come against strong rushing outfits.
All three of Miami’s losses this season came against teams 10th or better in PFF’s rushing grades. Currently, the Colts are 30th in that category.
Some of that can be attributed to Jonathan Taylor’s absence, but this is simultaneously a terrible matchup for the Colts passing game.
Per NFL.com, the Colts are third in successful pass plays over 20 yards and first in successful pass plays over 40 yards.
The issue? They’re encountering a Miami defense that has surrendered only 10 pass plays over 20 yards this season.
Miami’s offense, which has looked anemic to start the year, also could get DeVon Achane back from a concussion in Week 7.
That gives Miami, with extra time to prepare, the better skill group in my estimation.
Miami also matches a historically profitable betting system in this spot.
Road dogs priced between +1.5 and +6 in games 2-9 are 64.7% ATS, assuming two factors:
- The opposing team missed the postseason the previous year
- The dog’s spread change from open to close falls between +1 and +5.5
When those dogs fall between +1.5 and +3.5, they improve to 71% ATS.
Take the Dolphins at +3 or better in Week 7 off extended rest.
Colts vs. Dolphins: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 61% | 80% | 48% | 54% |
| Colts | 39% | 20% | 52% | 46% |
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