Commanders vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

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Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray throws a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
(AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2024, 12:08 PM
  • The Cardinals are -3.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
  • Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Washington Commanders (2-1-0) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Arizona Cardinals (1-2-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Glendale, AZ.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Commanders vs. Cardinals Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Cardinals Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Commanders+3.5 -11549.5 -110+145
Cardinals -3.5 -10549.5 -110-175

Commanders vs. Cardinals Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Cardinals will win this game with 71.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Commanders vs Cardinals Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cardinals will cover the spread with 69.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Terry McLaurin has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.30 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Noah Brown has hit the Receptions Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.70 Units / 68% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cardinals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • James Conner has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • James Conner has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • James Conner has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Chris Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Kyler Murray has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 40% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Cardinals vs Commanders

Player Name Over Under
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 56.5 -115 56.5 -115
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) 66.5 -140 66.5 +105
  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have scored last in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.80 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 26.47% ROI).

  • Commanders are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 86.15% ROI
  • Commanders are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Commanders are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cardinals are 2-1 (+0.8 Units / 23.53% ROI).

  • Cardinals are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -32.26% ROI
  • Cardinals are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Cardinals are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Arizona Cardinals

The Commanders were 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders are 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders are 1-9 (.100) after a road win since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.

The Commanders are 2-7 (.222) at home since the 2022 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .548.

Arizona Cardinals: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Cardinals were winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Cardinals are winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .710.

The Cardinals were winless (0-10) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The Cardinals were 1-6 (.143) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have a third down conversion rate of 45.5% this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 61.3% this season — worst in NFL.

The Cardinals have run successful plays on just 39.0% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 32.4% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Cardinals have scored on 69.2% of their drives in the first half this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 81.8% of opponent drives in the first half this season — worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 85.7% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed successful plays on 70.0% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 55.6% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed successful plays on 63.2% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 62.3% of pass attempts against a base front this season — best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed successful plays on 54.2% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats

The Commanders have run successful plays on 86% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Commanders have rushed for 6 TDs this season — T-most in NFL.

The Commanders have run 66% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Commanders have scored on 64% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Arizona Cardinals Offense: Important Stats

The Cardinals have rushed for 20+ yards 29 times since the 2022 season — most in NFL.

The Cardinals have averaged 0.72 epa per play against a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Cardinals had 23 rushes of 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Cardinals have rushed for 20+ yards 6 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats

The Commanders defense has allowed 48 TD passes since the 2022 season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense allowed 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense allowed 39 TD passes last season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense have allowed 0.18 epa per play with a base rush since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

Arizona Cardinals Defense: Important Stats

19% of the plays ran against the Cardinals were in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

18% of the plays run against the Cardinals have been in the red zone since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Cardinals defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of rush attempts with a stacked front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Cardinals defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.