- The Lions are -9.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX | FOXD
The Washington Commanders visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions on Jan. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Detroit, MI.
The Lions are betting favorites in this NFC Divisonal Playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The Commanders vs. Lions Over/Under is 55.5 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | +9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +375 |
| Lions | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 |
Commanders vs. Lions Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Lions Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 70.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Completions Over in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Terry McLaurin has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.90 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
- David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.35 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Commanders
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) | +350 |
| David Montgomery (Det) | +400 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | +550 |
| Jameson Williams (Det) | +800 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 22.5 -115 | 22.5 -115 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 66.5 -135 | 66.5 +100 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 54.5 -120 | 54.5 -110 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 50.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 76.5 -115 | 76.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 25.5 -110 | 25.5 -120 |
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 21 games (+15.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 11-6 (+4.45 Units / 22.31% ROI).
- Commanders are 13-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 18.48% ROI
- Commanders are 11-7 when betting the Over for +3.3 Units / 16.67% ROI
- Commanders are 7-11 when betting the Under for -5.1 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 12-4 (+7.6 Units / 40.75% ROI).
- Lions are 15-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.05 Units / 19.8% ROI
- Lions are 9-7 when betting the Over for +1.25 Units / 6.67% ROI
- Lions are 7-9 when betting the Under for -2.9 Units / -15.55% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Commanders were 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders were 1-10 (.091) when intercepting no passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.
The Commanders were 3-11 (.214) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
The Commanders were undefeated (5-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Lions are 3-1 (.750) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .259.
The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when within 3 points at the two minute warning this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Lions were 15-2 (.882) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders ran 22% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Commanders ran successful plays on 51% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Commanders ran successful plays on 36% of plays on play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Commanders converted fourth downs on 20 of 23 plays (87%) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions ran successful plays on 56% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Lions went three and out on 9% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense allowed 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Commanders defense allowed 4.9 touchdowns per interception (39 TDs allowed, and 8 INT) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
The Lions defense allowed first downs on just 32% of plays on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Lions defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (35 completions/89 attempts) in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Lions defense allowed opponents to catch just 35 of 82 passes (43% Reception Pct) in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Lions defense blitzed on 30% of plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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