- The Cowboys are a 4.5-point home underdog against the Buccaneers.
- The Buccaneers have won each of their last 10 road games following a road win.
- My Cowboys vs. Buccaneers prediction focuses on Tampa Bay’s team total.
Off a blowout win in Los Angeles, Baker Mayfield leads the Bucs into Dallas for Sunday Night Football against Dallas.
The Bucs quickly fell behind against the Chargers on Sunday and trailed 17-13 at halftime. However, a 27-0 second half handed Todd Bowles’ Bucs a fourth straight win.
Dallas captured a third win in their previous four games on Sunday with a 30-14 road win over the Panthers. At 6-8, Dallas sits two games behind the final wild card spot.
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NFL Week 16 Odds: Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Prediction, SNF
Based on Tampa Bay’s excellent offensive record against a powerful set of defenses, my Cowboys vs. Buccaneers prediction is the Buccaneers Team Total Over.
I’m not sure the NFL betting community writ large recognizes how good Tampa Bay’s offense is playing at the moment.
The Bucs rank seventh in offensive DVOA for the season, having faced the 13th-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
On Sunday, Tampa plays a Cowboys defense ranking 23rd in the corresponding defensive category, albeit against the 13th-hardest set of opposing offenses.
While bettors can expect some positive regression for the Dallas defense at some point, I don’t believe this is the spot.
Tampa Bay has played seven games against teams 20th or worse in defensive DVOA this season.
Mayfield guided the Bucs to 32.6 points per game in those seven contests, notching no fewer than 26 points in any of those seven contests.
Conversely, Dallas has played five games this season against teams 10th or better in offensive DVOA.
The Cowboys surrendered 32.4 points per game across those five contests and have allowed all five opponents to notch at least 26 points.
One last factor to consider here: Tampa Bay excels when they reach the red zone, while Dallas struggles immensely playing defense inside the 20.
The Bucs are tied for fifth in red zone scoring attempts per game (3.9) and sixth in red zone scoring percentage.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank T-14th in opponent red zone attempts per game (3.2), but they’re 32nd in red zone touchdown percentage.
As a result, take the Bucs to clear a lofty number against a bad defense.
Betting Cowboys vs. Buccaneers: NFL Public Betting
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