- The Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 44 points
- Watch this AFC Wild Card Playoff game on Peacock
The Miami Dolphins (11-6) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) on Jan. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Dolphins vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +3.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +150 |
| Chiefs | -3.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -185 |
Dolphins vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this playoff game game with 60.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 59.7% confidence.
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 82% ROI)
- Raheem Mostert has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Raheem Mostert has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kadarius Toney has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.75 Units / 55% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.30 Units / 41% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games (+13.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+4.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins went 10-7 (+2.4 Units / 12.83% ROI).
- Dolphins are 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.5 Units / -4.12% ROI
- Dolphins are 9-8 when betting the Over for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI
- Dolphins are 8-9 when betting the Under for -1.9 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 9-7 (+1.3 Units / 6.88% ROI).
- Chiefs are 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -9.08% ROI
- Chiefs are 5-12 when betting the Over for -8.2 Units / -43.85% ROI
- Chiefs are 12-5 when betting the Under for +6.5 Units / 34.76% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) vs top 10 run offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Dolphins are undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .577.
The Dolphins are 12-4 (.750) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — 9th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 19 passes since the 2022 season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
The Dolphins are 4-4 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Chiefs are 15-6 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .295.
The Chiefs are 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Chiefs are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .670.
The Chiefs are 3-1 (.750) vs top 10 defenses this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .476.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 8.0% of 653 carries since the 2022 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 10+ yards on just 6.9% of carries to RBs since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Chiefs have 69 touchdown passes since the 2022 season — most in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 54 passing TDs since the 2022 season — T-4th-most in NFL.
Chiefs RBs have gained 1,481 yards on 178 receptions (8.3 YPR) since the 2022 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 8.1 Yards Per Reception to RBs since the 2022 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins are averaging 5.4 yards per carry on first down since the 2022 season — best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 5.0 yards per carry on first down since the 2022 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins are averaging 6.2 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 5.4 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins are 12-4 (.750) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — 9th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 19 passes since the 2022 season — T-4th-fewest in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have 19 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have scored 8 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have scored 13 TDs from their own territory since the 2022 season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have run the ball on 14% of plays (28 carries/203 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 47% on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Chiefs have gone three and out on 14% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Chiefs are averaging 13.2 drives per TD in the 4th quarter this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
20% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Dolphins defense has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (56/623) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
Only 9% of the plays run against the Dolphins have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Dolphins have been flagged 6 times for 10+ yards on defense this season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed just 4.4 yards per dropback (643 yards/146 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Chiefs defense has allowed just 3.6 yards per dropback (256 yards/72 attempts) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.2.
The Chiefs defense has allowed just 5.7 yards per dropback (6,741 yards/1,174 attempts) since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 6.5.
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