Dolphins vs Seahawks Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

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(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2024, 4:07 PM

The Seahawks are -4.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Miami Dolphins (1-1-0) visit Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks (2-0-0) on Sep. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Seattle, WA.

The Seahawks are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Seahawks Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Seahawks Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Dolphins	+4.5 -110	41.5 -110	+180
Seahawks	-4.5 -110	41.5 -110	-225

Dolphins vs. Seahawks Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Seahawks will win this game with 61.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Dolphins vs Seahawks Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 55.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 84% ROI)

Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)

Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 47% ROI)

Raheem Mostert has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Seahawks players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Seahawks Player Prop Best Bets Today

Sam Howell has hit the Interceptions Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 50% ROI)

DK Metcalf has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 55% ROI)

Jason Myers has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.20 Units / 39% ROI)

Tyler Lockett has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 76% ROI)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 44% ROI)

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)

The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 15% ROI)

The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Seahawks Best Bets:

The Seattle Seahawks have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)

The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 46% ROI)

The Seattle Seahawks have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)

The Seattle Seahawks have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)

The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

Dolphins are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -12.31% ROI
Dolphins are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Dolphins are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI

Seahawks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Seahawks are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -50% ROI).

Seahawks are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 45.45% ROI
Seahawks are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Seahawks are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Seattle Seahawks

The Dolphins are 8-2 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Seahawks has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 42 s since the 2023 season — highest in NFL.

The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Dolphins were 4-4 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Dolphins were 4-3 (.571) on the road last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .442.

Seattle Seahawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Seahawks are undefeated (5-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .662.

The Seahawks were 4-3 (.571) after a win last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Seahawks are 5-3 (.625) after a loss since the 2022 season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .484.

The Seahawks are 5-2 (.714) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2022 season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .611.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have been successful on 66.7% of plays they have ran against a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to be successful on 50.0% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Seahawks have run successful plays on 57.1% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on just 17.5% of passing plays this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 52.2% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed successful plays on 50.8% of rush attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Dolphins RBs have averaged 5.5 touches per game in the red zone since the 2023 season — T-3rd-highest in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone to RBs since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Dolphins RBs have 22 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed 26 rushing TDs since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have averaged -1.62 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.57.

The Dolphins have 20 TDs that were 20+ yards since the 2022 season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have scored 14 TDs from their own territory since the 2022 season — most in NFL.

Seattle Seahawks Offense: Important Stats

The Seahawks ran successful plays on 68% of plays against a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Seahawks averaged 0.63 epa per play against a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Seahawks have averaged 0.56 epa per play against a light rush since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.03.

The Seahawks have run successful plays on 67% of plays against a light rush since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 67% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins defense has not allowed scores on any opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a passer rating of 154.6 with a light front (15 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 78.6.

The Dolphins defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (56/624) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

Seattle Seahawks Defense: Important Stats

The Seahawks defense has allowed just 3.7 yards per dropback (257 yards/69 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.4.

The Seahawks defense forced three and outs on 7% of opponent drives in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Seahawks defense forced three and outs on 2% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Seahawks defense have forced three and outs on 5% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

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