- The Dolphins are predicted to be -2.5-point favorites against the Bills.
- Buffalo finished 2-0 SU against the Dolphins in the 2023 season.
- I predict Thursday’s game will finish under the pregame total.
For the debut of Thursday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills travel to face the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East clash.
Both teams secured come-from-behind wins in Week 1.
Buffalo used a strong second half to win against the Cardinals, while Miami erased a deficit at home against the Jaguars.
Last year, the Bills finished 2-0 SU against the Dolphins, including a narrow win in Week 18 to secure the division.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Dolphins vs. Bills prediction.
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, TNF
- Miami Dolphins Moneyline: -135
- Buffalo Bills Moneyline: +115
- Game Spread: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 49 Points
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, TNF
My Thursday Night Football prediction is for the game total to stay under 50 points (-110).
This number is simply way too high for a primetime divisional game with two teams playing on short rest.
Irrespective of matchup, betting unders in primetime matchups featuring high numbers is historically profitable.
Since 2004, outdoor Thursday and Monday games with a total between 49.5 and 57 are 44-19 (69.8%) to the under, including 19-4 to the under in divisional contests.
In terms of the matchup, these teams met in Week 18 last year with a total of 48 points. The game comfortably stayed under with only 35 points.
That game also featured a Bills 96-yard return touchdown, so there’s an argument the game should have returned a lower score.
While bettors may point to the 68-point shootout in Buffalo last year, this Bills offense is different under Joe Brady.
In early November of 2023, the Bills sat 25th in rush play percentage. Fast forward to the end of the regular season and bettors will find they ranked sixth in rush play percentage.
If the Bills are going to run the ball and burn clock, I question how this game will turn into a high-flying shootout.
Plus, Miami saw both Raheem Mostert and DeVon Achane exit their Week 1 game with injuries.
If either or both are out, it makes Miami a lot easier to prepare for from a Bills defensive standpoint.
Take the under as long as it stays at 49.5 or higher.
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