- The Bills are a 6-point home favorite against the Dolphins.
- The Bills have won 11 straight home games against opponents on a losing streak.
- My Bills vs. Dolphins prediction is for the Bills to cover the spread.
Buffalo will look for a second win against the Dolphins this season with a Week 9 meeting at Highmark Stadium.
The 6-2 Bills are the only AFC East team currently above .500. Dating back to Week 6, the Bills have earned three straight wins over the Jets, Titans and Seahawks.
Miami returned quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from injury last week, but the result wasn’t good. The Dolphins fell 28-27 on a last-second field goal to the Cardinals, falling to 2-5.
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NFL Week 9 Odds: Bills vs. Dolphins
Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction
Based on Josh Allen’s outstanding record against the Dolphins and the strength of Buffalo’s defense, my Bills vs. Dolphins prediction is the Bills Spread (-6, -110).
For those wary of lying this many points, I also endorse using the Bills as the first leg of a six-point teaser.
Over the last seven meetings between these sides, the Dolphins have struggled to cover big numbers. With Tagovailoa at quarterback, Miami is 1-6 ATS vs. +6 against the Bills.
Plus, Miami goes from facing one of the league’s worst defenses to one of the best.
Last week, they played an Arizona side 29th and 32nd in defensive EPA per play and defensive success rate. Buffalo ranks seventh and eighth, respectively, in those categories.
Even more concerning is the matchup for the Dolphins pass defense.
Miami sits 23rd in opponent yards per completion (10.5) while Buffalo ranks fifth in the corresponding offensive category (11.8).
If Buffalo can find high-percentage throws and play from ahead, it likely decreases Miami’s ability to come from behind and cover this number.
The Bills defense ranks third in dropback EPA per play and ninth in dropback success rate. They’re also a top-five unit in opponent yards per pass attempt and yards per completion.
Lastly, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has struggled as an underdog in his tenure.
Miami is 5-10 ATS as a dog with McDaniel, including 4-7 ATS as a road underdog and 1-3 ATS as a road dog of +4 or higher.
Pair those trends with the Bills’ edge on defense, and I’ll lay the points with the hosts.
Bills vs. Dolphins: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Bills vs. Dolphins public betting data and insights.
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