Eagles vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

(AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
  • The Eagles are -2 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
  • Total (Over/Under): 44 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Philadelphia Eagles (2-1-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Tampa, FL.

The Eagles are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Eagles vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.

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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Eagles-1.5 -11042.5 -110-125
Buccaneers +1.5 -11042.5 -110+105

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Eagles will win this game with 65.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Eagles vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Eagles will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Eagles players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Eagles Player Prop Bets Today

  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Jalen Hurts has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Kenny Pickett has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Jalen Hurts has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.45 Units / 43% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Rachaad White has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+4.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Eagles

Player Name Over Under
Mike Evans (TB) 60.5 -115 60.5 -115
Chris Godwin (TB) 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
Rachaad White (TB) 23.5 -115 23.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Buccaneers vs Eagles

Player Name Over Under
Baker Mayfield (TB) 12.5 -110 12.5 -120
Saquon Barkley (PHI) 77.5 -115 77.5 -115
Rachaad White (TB) 37.5 -120 37.5 -110
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.45 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Eagles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Eagles art 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Eagles are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -6.32% ROI
  • Eagles are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Eagles are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 25.89% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Philadelphia Eagles: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles are 8-2 (.800) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 246.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Eagles are undefeated (8-0) vs bottom 10 pass defenses since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Eagles were undefeated (3-0) vs bottom 10 pass defenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .506.

The Eagles are 13-5 (.722) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .390.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles

The Buccaneers are undefeated (3-0) after a road win since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .541.

The Buccaneers were 3-1 (.750) when playing in cold weather last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-5) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .293.

The Buccaneers are winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .146.

Additional Matchup Notes for Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have averaged -0.36 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Eagles have allowed -0.39 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 58.2% of pass attempts against a base front this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Eagles have pressured opposing QBs on 17.8% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Buccaneers RBs have averaged just 1.5 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL. The Eagles have allowed just 1.7 yards after contact per carry to RBs since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL.

The Eagles ran successful plays on 55.0% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed successful plays on 56.2% of rush attempts with a base front last week — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Eagles have 5 rushing touchdowns this season — T-4th-most in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 6 rushing TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Eagles are 8-2 (.800) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 246.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles Offense: Important Stats

The Eagles ran successful plays on 61% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Eagles have run successful plays on 59% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Eagles ran successful plays on 59% of plays against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Eagles ran successful plays on 54% of plays in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers are averaging 16.2 drives per TD in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 71% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Philadelphia Eagles Defense: Important Stats

The Eagles defense have forced three and outs on 9% of opponent drives in the 2nd half since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Eagles defense allowed 25 TD passes in the red zone last season — T-most in NFL.

The Eagles defense has allowed 40 TD passes since the 2022 season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Eagles defense allowed at least 5 yards on 10% of first down plays in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 42% of plays this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 29% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs in the red zone this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.