- The Eagles are a 3.5-point home favorite against the Commanders.
- The Eagles have won 11 of the last 12 at home against teams with a winning record.
- My Eagles vs. Commanders prediction is the Eagles to cover the spread.
It’s a Thursday night clash between the class of the NFC East with Philadelphia hosting Washington.
The Eagles enter Thursday’s game with the division lead after a convincing win over the Cowboys. That gives the Eagles five straight wins since their bye week.
Washington’s flawless record as favorites finally ended in Week 10. Despite taking a 10-point lead against the Steelers, the Commanders fell 28-27 at home.
Bet on Eagles vs. Commanders and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 11 Odds: Eagles vs. Commanders
Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction
Based on Jalen Hurts’ outstanding record as a home favorite and Washington’s defensive struggles, my Eagles vs. Commanders prediction is the Eagles Spread (-3, -125).
In theory, this isn’t the best spot to back the Eagles. They’re coming off a blowout win, while Washington narrowly fell at home to Pittsburgh.
But Washington’s last three results aren’t as close as one would think.
They were handed a gift against Pittsburgh, who turned the ball over on downs at their own 16-yard line early in D.C. Without that touchdown, the game likely looks much different.
In the two games prior, Washington survived a pair of two-point tries from the Giants that would have won New York the game. And how can we forget about a miracle win over Chicago?
Currently, Washington is a seven-win team with 5.6 expected wins, per ftnfantasy.com.
There’s also a strong trend with Washington this year: weak defensive performance = weak result.
The Commanders are 1-3 SU this year when allowing 23 or more points. Comparatively, they’re 6-0 when surrendering 22 or fewer points.
Since emerging from their bye week, Philadelphia ranks fifth in EPA per play and 10th in offensive success rate.
Philadelphia also carries a matchup edge over Washington. The Eagles are sixth in rush offense DVOA while the Commanders sit 24th in the corresponding defensive category.
Even more concerning? This marks only the third time this season Washington has played a top-10 rush offense by DVOA.
They’re 0-2 SU in the previous two games while allowing 37 and 30 points, respectively.
Finally, Jalen Hurts is 12-8-1 ATS as a home favorite in his career. The kicker? Hurts is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite against a team averaging more than 23 points per game.
Irrespective of venue, Hurts is 9-2 ATS against such teams.
Given the line has jumped to Eagles -3.5, I’ll buy them down off the key number for an increased price.
Eagles vs. Commanders: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 41% | 21% | 62% | 36% |
| Eagles | 59% | 79% | 38% | 64% |
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