- The Falcons are -4 point favorites vs the Raiders
- Total (Over/Under): 44 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ESPD
The Atlanta Falcons (6-7-0) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11-0) on Dec. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Paradise, NV.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The Falcons vs. Raiders Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | -4 -110 | 44 -110 | -225 |
| Raiders | +4 -110 | 44 -110 | +180 |
Falcons vs. Raiders Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 79.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Raiders Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 54.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Aidan O’Connell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Gardner Minshew has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alexander Mattison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Aidan O’Connell has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.60 Units / 54% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+2.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 away games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Raiders Best Bets:
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 5-8 (-3.9 Units / -26.9% ROI).
- Falcons are 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -13.54% ROI
- Falcons are 5-8 when betting the Over for -3.8 Units / -26.57% ROI
- Falcons are 8-5 when betting the Under for +2.5 Units / ROI
Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 5-8 (-3.95 Units / -27.24% ROI).
- Raiders are 2-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -52.41% ROI
- Raiders are 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI
- Raiders are 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / -26.57% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders
The Falcons are 5-2 (.714) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 8th-best in NFL. The Raiders have turned the ball over 24 times this season — most in NFL.
The Falcons are 10-5 (.667) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Raiders have turned the ball over 49 times since the 2023 season — 5th-most in NFL.
The Falcons are 4-7 (.364) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .655.
The Falcons were 2-9 (.182) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Raiders are winless (0-7) when intercepting no passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .409.
The Raiders are winless (0-8) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .412.
The Raiders are undefeated (4-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .606.
The Raiders were winless (0-8) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have rushed the ball on just 43.9% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone since the 2023 season — 5th-lowest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2023 season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.
The Falcons have run successful plays on 53.4% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Raiders have pressured opposing QBs on 28.4% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Falcons are 5-2 (.714) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 8th-best in NFL. The Raiders have turned the ball over 24 times this season — most in NFL.
Falcons WRs gained 310 yards on 19 receptions (16.3 YPR) last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Raiders allowed 15.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have averaged -1.18 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.
The Falcons have gone three and out on 12% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Falcons have averaged -0.73 epa per play when their QB has scrambled since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.28.
Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats
The Raiders have run successful plays on 17% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Raiders have averaged -0.97 epa per play against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
The Raiders averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
The Raiders have run successful plays on 16% of rush attempts against a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
58% of the plays ran against the Falcons were in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 14 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 23.6 pass attempts (448 Pass Attempts/19 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.2.
The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 73% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Falcons defense allowed 5 TD passes in Week 14 — most in NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats
The Raiders defense missed 16 tackles in Week 14 — most in NFL.
The Raiders defense has allowed 9 TD passes when the opposing QB has scrambled since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Raiders defense has allowed 5 TD passes when the opposing QB has scrambled this season — most in NFL.
25% of the plays run against the Raiders have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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