- The Falcons are -3.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Atlanta Falcons (6-3-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (2-7-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in New Orleans, LA.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).
The Falcons vs. Saints Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
Bet now on Saints vs Falcons & all NFL games with BetMGM
Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | -3.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -200 |
| Saints | +3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +165 |
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Saints Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Saints vs Falcons and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Younghoe Koo has hit the Field Goals Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 14 games (+4.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 36.5 -115 | 36.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 74.5 -120 | 74.5 -110 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 70.5 -110 | 70.5 -120 |
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have scored last in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 5-4 (+0.5 Units / 4.95% ROI).
- Falcons are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 17.73% ROI
- Falcons are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Falcons are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 3-6 (-3.55 Units / -36.41% ROI).
- Saints are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -50.99% ROI
- Saints are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Saints are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) on the road this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .478.
The Falcons were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Falcons were 3-5 (.375) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.
The Falcons are undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.
The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Saints are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .282.
The Saints are winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.
The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.
The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged 0.55 epa per play on first read passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.
The Falcons have averaged 0.52 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints have targeted RBs 27% of the time (77 Pass Attempts/289 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Saints have run successful plays on 39% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 36.4 pass attempts (328 Pass Attempts/9 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.0.
The Falcons defense allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 15% of pass attempts (9/58) when they have pressured the QB this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (9/328) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Saints defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 32% (9 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.
The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 69.1 with a light front (286 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 84.7.
The Saints defense has allowed 7.0 yards per dropback (1,770 yards/254 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Saints vs Falcons and all NFL games with BetMGM
More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
More NFL Odds at BetMGM
Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.
From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.
And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.
Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!
