- The Falcons are -3.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Atlanta Falcons (6-3-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (2-7-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in New Orleans, LA.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).
The Falcons vs. Saints Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | -3.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -200 |
| Saints | +3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +165 |
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Saints Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Younghoe Koo has hit the Field Goals Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 14 games (+4.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 36.5 -115 | 36.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 74.5 -120 | 74.5 -110 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 70.5 -110 | 70.5 -120 |
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have scored last in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 5-4 (+0.5 Units / 4.95% ROI).
- Falcons are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 17.73% ROI
- Falcons are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Falcons are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 3-6 (-3.55 Units / -36.41% ROI).
- Saints are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -50.99% ROI
- Saints are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Saints are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are undefeated (3-0) on the road this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .478.
The Falcons were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Falcons were 3-5 (.375) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.
The Falcons are undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are winless (0-6) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.
The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Saints are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .282.
The Saints are winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.
The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.
The Saints ran successful plays on 53.3% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on 61.1% of rush attempts with a base front last week — worst in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Falcons have averaged 0.55 epa per play on first read passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.
The Falcons have averaged 0.52 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints have targeted RBs 27% of the time (77 Pass Attempts/289 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Saints have run successful plays on 39% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 36.4 pass attempts (328 Pass Attempts/9 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.0.
The Falcons defense allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 15% of pass attempts (9/58) when they have pressured the QB this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Falcons defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (9/328) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Saints defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 32% (9 completions/28 attempts) on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.
The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 69.1 with a light front (286 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 84.7.
The Saints defense has allowed 7.0 yards per dropback (1,770 yards/254 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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