- The Saints are -3 point favorites vs the Falcons
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch the game on CBS
The Atlanta Falcons (5-11) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (5-10) on Jan. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in New Orleans, LA.
The Saints are betting favorites in this Week 18 matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).
The Falcons vs. Saints Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | +3 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +140 |
| Saints | -3 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -165 |
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Saints will win this Week 18 game with 62.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Saints Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 58.0% confidence.
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Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this Week 18 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Longest Rush Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Carries Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.15 Units / 56% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.40 Units / 20% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons went 5-11 (-7.1 Units / -40.23% ROI).
- Falcons are 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -19.76% ROI
- Falcons are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Falcons are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / ROI
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints went 5-10 (-5.85 Units / -33.52% ROI).
- Saints are 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -10% ROI
- Saints are 5-11 when betting the Over for -7.15 Units / -40.51% ROI
- Saints are 11-5 when betting the Under for +5.5 Units / 31.34% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are winless (0-3) vs top 10 run offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
The Falcons are 4-1 (.800) when forcing at least one fumble this season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.
The Falcons are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .298.
The Falcons are 2-5 (.286) on the road this season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .434.
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Saints are winless (0-4) vs top 10 offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.
The Saints are 5-1 (.833) when forcing at least one fumble this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.
The Saints are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .679.
The Saints are winless (0-4) vs top 10 pass offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints have run successful plays on just 31.6% of rush attempts since Week 14 — 3rd-worst in NFL. Falcons have allowed successful plays on just 33.6% of rush attempts since Week 14 — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Saints have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 17.1% of pass attempts since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons have pressured opposing QBs on just 18.9% of passing plays since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Saints TEs have averaged just 3.6 yards after the catch this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Falcons have allowed just 3.9 yards after catch per reception to TEs this season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Falcons ran just 27.1% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. Saints allowed their opponents to runjust 24.5% of plays in their territory last week — best in NFL.
The Falcons ran just 3.4% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 5th-worst in NFL. Saints allowed their opponent to run just 0.0% of plays in the red zone last week — T-best in NFL.
Falcons RBs have averaged 1.9 yards after contact per carry since the 2022 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 1.9 yards after contact per carry since the 2022 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons are averaging 16.3 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
The Falcons have committed 6 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
The Falcons have targeted WRs 39% of the time (193 Pass Attempts/496 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have targeted WRs 46% of the time (421 Pass Attempts/911 plays) since the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints ran successful plays on 22% of rush attempts in Week 17 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Saints have thrown the ball 92% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/13 plays) in close and late situations this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.
The Saints have been sacked on just 3% of pass attempts (5/164) in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 8%.
The Saints ran successful plays on 18% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 17 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense averaged a sack every 27.7 pass attempts (582 Pass Attempts/21 Sacks) in the 2022 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.9.
The Falcons defense pressured opposing QBs on 13% of pass attempts in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Falcons defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 34% this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense has allowed first downs on 27% of pass attempts on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Saints defense has allowed first downs on just 40% of plays on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Saints defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 40% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 14% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
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