- The Falcons are predicted to be -1.5-point favorites against the Buccaneers.
- In the last two seasons, these teams have split the season series 2-2.
- My Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction is for Atlanta to cover the spread.
The Falcons look to earn their second straight divisional win on Thursday night as Atlanta hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Atlanta captured a last-gasp victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. Despite scoring zero offensive touchdowns, the Falcons won 26-24 to hand the Saints consecutive losses.
Tampa Bay moved to 3-1 with a convincing 33-16 home win over the Philadelphia Eagles. That gives the Bucs two straight outright wins as underdogs.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds, TNF
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline: +105
- Atlanta Falcons Moneyline: -125
- Game Spread: Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction, TNF
My Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction on Thursday Night Football is the Falcons Spread (-1.5, -110). However, this is strictly a lean.
The Week 4 performances say to bet Tampa Bay.
Here’s how the Falcons scored their points last week: one touchdown each on special teams and defense along with four field goals, two of which came from outside 53 yards.
That’s simply unsustainable.
While Atlanta’s offense is decent – they’re 10th in PFF’s offensive grades – I worry about the injuries to their offensive line interior against a strong Buccaneers front.
The other concern with Atlanta is that their coverage grades are slowly deteriorating.
After looking good against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, their pass defense has declined against Kansas City and New Orleans.
The good news? It might not matter against Tampa. Through four weeks, Baker Mayfield has two passing grades north of 81 and two south of 60.
The major concern, though, is how Tampa Bay stops the run. Atlanta is currently seventh in PFF’s rushing grades while Tampa is 30th in the corresponding defensive category.
At the same time, I feel obligated to mention Tampa Bay matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2003, conference underdogs between +1 and +6 in games 4-7 against a team on a one-game winning streak are 62% ATS.
When the line moves at least a point in those teams’ direction: 32-18 ATS, but only 19-15 ATS when it moves more than a point-and-a-half.
Tampa Bay opened at +3 and now sits at +1.5, so they fit the latter designation. Based on Atlanta’s edge via the ground, I’ll lean to laying the points with them at home.
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