- The Falcons are a 3-point home favorite against the Cowboys.
- The Falcons have lost four straight games as favorites following a road win.
- My Falcons vs. Cowboys prediction is to use Dallas as a teaser leg.
Atlanta will look for its fifth win in its last six games on Sunday when they host the Cowboys.
Raheem Morris’ side jumped out to an early lead in Week 8 against the Bucs. A 31-17 lead after three quarters secured the advantage for Atlanta, which ultimately won 31-26.
Dallas’ struggles continued in Week 8. On Sunday Night Football against the 49ers, Dallas fell 30-24 and dropped to 3-4 on the season.
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NFL Week 9 Odds: Falcons vs. Cowboys
Falcons vs. Cowboys Prediction
Based on Atlanta’s struggles creating margin and Dallas’ strong passing game, my Falcons vs. Cowboys prediction is to Tease Dallas (+9) as the first leg of a teaser.
Every fiber of my being wants to take Dallas +3. Atlanta has a 5-3 record, but based on their expected win-loss record, they’re 4-4.
The Cowboys also match a historically profitable system in this spot.
Road dogs in games 2-9 priced between +1.5 and +4.5 are 66% ATS since 2003, assuming two factors:
- The spread change from open to close falls between +1 and +5.5
- The favorite failed to reach the postseason the previous season
When those dogs are +3 or shorter, they improve to 71% ATS.
Additionally, those teams excel against a six-point teaser.
In terms of the former sample, dogs are 87-15 vs. a six-point teaser when priced between +1.5 and +4.5.
When they fall between +1.5 and +3, those dogs are 63-8 (89%) against a six-point teaser.
But the worry here with Dallas is they have no ability to stop the run. Per PFF, Dallas ranks 32nd in rush defensive grades, while Atlanta sits third in the corresponding offensive category.
The encouraging news is that Atlanta has no pass rush to exploit Dallas’ offensive line, and their secondary should struggle against their wide receivers.
Atlanta sits 24th in dropback EPA per play and 22nd in dropback success rate, per rbsdm.com.
This is only the second time all year Dallas has played a side 24th or worse in pass EPA per play. Previously, they blitzed the Ravens for 361 yards and 25 points.
Finally, Atlanta has won only one game this year by more than six points. That came against the Panthers, a far worse side than Dallas.
As a result, I’ll tease the Cowboys up to +9. If they reach +3.5, I’ll grab Dallas to cover the spread straight up.
Falcons vs. Cowboys: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Falcons vs. Cowboys public betting data and insights.
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