- The Falcons are a 3-point home favorite against the Seahawks.
- The Falcons have lost five of their last six games as favorites following a road win.
- My prediction for Falcons vs. Seahawks is to use Seattle as a teaser leg.
The Falcons will go for a fourth straight win in Week 7 against a Seahawks team hoping to avoid four straight losses.
Atlanta, which started the year 1-2, has reeled off wins over New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Carolina and now sits at 4-2 atop the NFC South.
Seattle’s campaign is the inverse. After starting 3-0, the Seahawks have lost three straight against the Lions, Giants and 49ers to fall to 3-3.
Bet on Falcons vs. Seahawks and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 7 Odds: Falcons vs. Seahawks
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | +3 (-115) | 51 (-110) | +130 |
| Falcons | -3 (-105) | 51 (-110) | -155 |
Falcons vs. Seahawks Prediction
Based on Atlanta’s lucky run and the strength of Seattle’s offense, my Falcons vs. Seahawks prediction is to tease Seattle up to +8.5.
I might end up on the Seahawks +2.5 by week’s end, but there are some key injuries I want to monitor before making a decision.
Either way, this is a Falcons team I want to fade.
I don’t place much stock into Atlanta’s win over the Panthers because, you know….it’s Carolina. Before that, Atlanta’s three wins came against heavy odds.
Those three wins came by nine combined points. All three games also saw Atlanta’s opponents have a live win probability higher than 80%.
Now their poor defense, which sits 21st in EPA per play and 26th in success rate, has to face a Seattle offense that’s 15th and eighth in the corresponding offensive categories.
Plus, the Seahawks match a historically profitable betting system in this spot.
Road dogs at +3.5 or shorter in conference games are 89-44-3 ATS (67%) since 2003, assuming two factors:
- The team’s previous game ATS margin is between -34 and -6
- The team’s game number is between 3 and 9
When those teams are playing an opponent off a win by eight or more points: 21-1 ATS, including 22-0 against a six-point teaser.
Even if you look at dogs against favorites off a win by three or more points, they’re still 32-10 ATS and 36-5 against a six-point teaser.
As a result, I’ll take Seattle up to +8.5 against a fraudulent Falcons team at minimum. For a pairing, tease the Los Angeles Rams down to -0.5 vs. the Raiders.
Falcons vs. Seahawks: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 40% | 49% | 44% | 58% |
| Falcons | 60% | 51% | 56% | 42% |
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