- The Falcons are -8.5 point favorites vs the Giants
- Total (Over/Under): 42 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The New York Giants (2-12-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (7-7-0) on Dec. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta, GA.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).
The Giants vs. Falcons Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.
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Giants vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Giants | +8.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +350 |
| Falcons | -8.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -450 |
Giants vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Giants vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Giants will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Giants players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today
- Theo Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.50 Units / 92% ROI)
- Theo Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Malik Nabers has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Daniel Bellinger has hit the Receptions Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Devin Singletary has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI)
Giants Best Bets:
- The New York Giants have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Giants have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Giants have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.97 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Giants have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+2.73 Units / 15% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+1.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 17 games (+1.65 Units / 9% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Giants art 4-10 (-6.9 Units / -45.1% ROI).
- Giants are 2-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -9 Units / -56.25% ROI
- Giants are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.95 Units / -32.04% ROI
- Giants are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 5-8 (-3.9 Units / -25% ROI).
- Falcons are 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -7.29% ROI
- Falcons are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
- Falcons are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
New York Giants: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Giants are winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Giants were 1-5 (.167) when allowing 250 or more passing yards last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.
The Giants are 2-12 (.143) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Giants were 3-6 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Giants
The Falcons were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Falcons are undefeated (6-0) when scoring 22 or more points this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .749.
The Falcons are undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .603.
The Falcons were 3-9 (.250) when not forcing a fumble last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
Additional Matchup Notes for New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have scored on 22.2% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Giants defense has allowed scores on 22.4% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Falcons have run successful plays on 59.3% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — worst in NFL.
Falcons RBs have averaged 113.7 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed an average of 138.2 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Giants WRs have averaged 23.9 targets per game this season — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 13.3 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
Giants WRs have been targeted 334 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL. The Falcons have allowed an average of 37.7 fantasy points per game to WRs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Giants WRs have 207 receptions in 14 games (14.8 per game) this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 13.3 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
New York Giants Offense: Important Stats
The Giants have averaged -0.34 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
The Giants have run successful plays on 15% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter since Week 12 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.
The Giants ran successful plays on 26% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Giants have committed 6 turnovers in the red zone this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons have averaged -1.18 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.30.
The Falcons have gone three and out on 11% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
New York Giants Defense: Important Stats
The Giants defense have allowed -0.06 epa per play against play action passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
The Giants defense allowed 5 TD passes in Week 15 — T-most in NFL.
The Giants defense allowed 6.8 yards per dropback (1,053 yards/156 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Giants defense has allowed a passer rating of 63.1 with tight coverage (93 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27.3.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense have allowed 0.84 epa per play first read passes since Week 12 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.22.
The Falcons defense has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 63 carries (10.5 Carries Per TD) in the red zone this season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 21.3 pass attempts (491 Pass Attempts/23 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.2.
The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 73% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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