- The Jets are a 2.5-point home underdog against the Bills.
- The Jets have lost 11 straight games against divisional opponents on a losing streak.
- My Jets vs. Bills prediction is the game total under 41 points.
The battle for the top spot in the AFC East takes place on MNF as the Jets welcome the Bills to MetLife Stadium.
Despite two straight losses, New York sits only a game behind Buffalo for the divisional lead. Plus, the Jets have won two straight home games against the Bills.
Buffalo has lost two straight games to the Ravens and Texans, leaving them at 3-2 after three straight wins to start the year.
Bet on Jets vs. Bills and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 6 Odds: Jets vs. Bills
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -2.5 (-110) | 41 (-110) | -145 |
| Jets | +2.5 (-110) | 41 (-110) | +120 |
Jets vs. Bills Prediction, MNF
Based on the strength of both defenses and key injuries to the Buffalo offense, my Jets vs. Bills prediction is the game total Under 41 points (-110).
The redeeming quality about the Jets is that their defense has largely maintained its quality year over year.
New York sits sixth in both EPA per play and success rate allowed. Last year, they ranked third and second in those respective categories.
The slight concern with New York is that they’ve struggled to stop the run. Through five games, the Jets are 13th in rush EPA per play allowed and 26th in rushing success rate.
The good news for New York? Buffalo running back James Cook is dealing with a toe injury and didn’t practice on Thursday.
Without Cook, I question if Buffalo can exploit a weak Jets run defense.
At the same time, don’t expect the Jets offense to accomplish much on Monday.
The Jets rank 23rd in EPA per play and 19th in offensive success rate, including 27th in rushing EPA per play.
That’s the path to exploiting Buffalo’s defense, which ranks 22nd in rush EPA per play allowed.
If the Jets can’t effectively run the ball, I question if their offense can score enough points to send this game over the total.
This game also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2003, games with a total between 40.5 and 50.5 featuring two teams with eight or more days between games are 57% to the under.
Just since 2021, those games are 48-17 (74%) to the under, including 14-4 when it’s a divisional contest.
Based on those outputs, take the under on Monday Night Football.
Jets vs. Bills: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 76% | 68% | 49% | 52% |
| Jets | 24% | 32% | 51% | 48% |
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