- The Jets are predicted to be -6-point favorites against the Patriots.
- New England has won three of the last four against the Jets.
- I predict the likeliest outcome for TNF is a Patriots cover.
For the second straight week, Thursday Night Football pits two AFC East sides against one another as the Jets host the Patriots.
New York opens their home schedule against their divisional foes. Last week, they traveled to Tennessee, earning a win and cover against the Titans.
The Patriots, meanwhile, fell in overtime against the Seahawks as slight home dogs in Week 2. That drops the Patriots to 1-1 on the season.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Jets vs. Patriots prediction.
Jets vs. Patriots Odds, TNF
- New York Jets Moneyline: -275
- New England Patriots Moneyline: +225
- Game Spread: New York Jets -6 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 37.5 Points
Jets vs. Patriots Prediction, TNF
My Thursday Night Football prediction is the New England Patriots Spread (+6, -110). However, this qualifies as a lean.
On paper, this is a terrible spot for the Jets.
They travel home to play a short-week road game, their third in the last 10 days. That leads me to question if they can cover a big number.
That said, they get a Patriots team that played an overtime game on Sunday. That could mitigate New York’s disadvantage on Thursday night.
What leads me to New England is that, historically, divisional dogs in the first few weeks that take money tend to signal the correct side.
Since 2003, road divisional dogs that missed the postseason the previous year and see their spread move between -2.5 and -0.5 points are 65% ATS in Weeks 1-4.
However, that system is off to a 0-3 start in the 2024 season.
In the four seasons prior, that system was 12-4 ATS in favor of the underdog.
Lastly, if the game proves as low-scoring as oddsmakers expect — only two Week 3 games have a lower over/under than this game — it also benefits the underdog.
Since 2003, road divisional dogs between +1 and +6.5 with a total between 35.5 and 43.5 are 59% ATS.
When the total falls between 35.5 and 38.5 in those games, the dog is 63.4% ATS.
As a result, it’s the Patriots or nothing for me on Thursday night.
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