- The Jets are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Texans.
- The Texans have won eight of their last nine games against AFC opponents.
- My Jets vs. Texans prediction is the pregame total under 42 points.
The Jets will look to avoid a sixth straight defeat on Thursday night when they welcome the Texans to MetLife Stadium.
New York made history against the Patriots in its Week 8 loss. The Jets became the first team ever to score 20 points, allow fewer than 250 and avoid a turnover in a defeat.
The Texans, meanwhile, won 23-20 at home over the Colts. This moved them to 6-2, good for the lead in the AFC South by two games.
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NFL Week 9 Odds: Jets vs. Texans
Jets vs. Texans Prediction, TNF
Based on the strength of both defenses, my Jets vs. Texans prediction is the pregame Total Under 42 Points (-110).
Houston remains without Nico Collins for this game and could lose Stefon Diggs for an extended period of time.
That makes Houston a one-dimensional offense against a Jets defense that just posted its best run defensive grade of the season, per PFF.
Additionally, the Jets secondary has returned D.J. Reed and Michael Carter to the lineup. That should restore the quality of this secondary back to pre-Steelers game levels.
If the Jets run defense, which now includes Haason Reddick, continues to improve, I question how the Texans offense moves the ball.
At the same time, I’m not sure bettors have latched onto the quality of Houston’s defense.
The Texans rank eighth in defensive EPA per play and lead the league in defensive success rate.
New York has scored 20 or more points four times this year. Two of those successes came against the Patriots.
The other two successes? Week 2 at Tennessee and Week 6 vs. Buffalo, which included an Aaron Rodgers hail mary to accomplish that feat.
This will mark New York’s fifth game against a team 10th or better in defensive EPA per play. The Jets are averaging just over 15 points per game in the other four.
Finally, these sides met last year, with the Jets winning 30-6 over Houston. As a result, take the under on Thursday Night Football.
Jets vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 78% | 76% | 82% | 55% |
| Jets | 22% | 24% | 18% | 45% |
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