Lions vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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(AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 20, 2024, 11:50 AM

The Lions are -7.5 point favorites vs the Colts
Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Detroit Lions (9-1-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (5-6-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Indianapolis, IN.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Lions vs. Colts Over/Under is 50.5 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Lions	-7.5 -105	50.5 -110	-400
Colts	+7.5 -115	50.5 -110	+310

Lions vs. Colts Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Lions vs Colts Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 58.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.25 Units / 41% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 52% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 59% ROI)
Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 40% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.55 Units / 54% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.50 Units / 54% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.25 Units / 42% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 16% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.25 Units / 48% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.10 Units / 18% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.35 Units / 31% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.10 Units / 23% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions art 8-2 (+5.8 Units / 53.21% ROI).

Lions are 9-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 16.67% ROI
Lions are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.55 Units / 4.98% ROI
Lions are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 8-3 (+4.7 Units / 39.33% ROI).

Colts are 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -2.06% ROI
Colts are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Colts are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Lions are 4-2 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .269.

The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .251.

The Lions are undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .578.

The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Colts are 4-11 (.267) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 10th-worst in NFL. The Lions have intercepted 30 passes since the 2023 season — T-4th-most in NFL.

The Colts were undefeated (8-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.

The Colts were 5-3 (.625) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Colts are 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have run successful plays on just 32.6% of rush attempts with motion this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 34.3% of rush attempts against motion this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on just 42.1% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 42.2% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on just 36.3% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 35.2% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Lions have run successful plays on 50.7% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Colts have allowed successful plays on 49.6% of pass attempts on their own side of the field since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have run successful plays on 50.4% of pass attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed successful plays on 45.9% of pass attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Lions RBs have averaged 145.0 rushing yards per game this season — best in NFL. The Colts have allowed an average of 143.5 rushing yards per game this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions ran successful plays on 84% of pass attempts against a base rush in Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Lions had 10 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 11 — most in NFL.

The Lions ran successful plays on 69% of plays in Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Lions ran successful plays on 79% of pass attempts in Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on 22% of rush attempts against a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 2nd half since Week 8 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 36% of rush attempts this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 51.4 in the red zone (43 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.0.

The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 73.6 (368 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 91.6.

The Lions defense has blitzed on 53% of plays on 3rd and long since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Lions defense have allowed -0.24 epa per play against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.07.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 54% of pass attempts on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 77% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Colts defense has forced 5 turnovers in the red zone this season — T-most in NFL.

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

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