Lions vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 7

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Vikings player number 18 running with a NFL ball game in hand.
(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2024, 2:26 PM
  • The Vikings are -2.5 point favorites vs the Lions
  • Total (Over/Under): 50 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Detroit Lions (4-1-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (5-0-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

The Vikings are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Lions vs. Vikings Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Lions+2.5 -11050 -110+115
Vikings -2.5 -11050 -110-135

Lions vs. Vikings Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this game with 62.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Lions vs Vikings Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread with 62.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.50 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Sam Darnold has hit the Completions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Josh Oliver has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 61% ROI)
  • T.J. Hockenson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • T.J. Hockenson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Aaron Jones has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.75 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+10.85 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+8.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions art 4-1 (+2.9 Units / 53.7% ROI).

  • Lions are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 3.43% ROI
  • Lions are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.35 Units / -24.32% ROI
  • Lions are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings are 5-0 (+5 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Vikings are 5-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 110.91% ROI
  • Vikings are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
  • Vikings are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Lions are 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .271.

The Lions are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .573.

The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Lions are 16-3 (.842) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .592.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) after a win this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

The Vikings are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .521.

The Vikings are undefeated (5-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Vikings were 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Lions have a third down conversion rate of 39% against tight coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Lions converted first downs on 103 of 320 plays (32%) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

The Vikings have not gone three and out on any of their drives in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

26% of the Vikings offense’s first downs (79 of 299) came on the ground last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Vikings ran successful plays on 34% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Vikings have averaged 0.48 epa per play on first read passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.18.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

Offenses facing the Lions targeted WRs 75% of the time (151 Pass Attempts/202 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Lions defense have allowed -0.12 epa per play first read passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.18.

The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 43.6 in the red zone (23 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 94.6.

The Lions defense allowed first downs on 50% of rush attempts on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 66%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

The Vikings defense allowed successful plays on 29% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Vikings defense has allowed 15 of 88 (17%) first downs on the ground this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Vikings defense has allowed a passer rating of just 65.1 with a base rush (181 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.7.

The Vikings defense has allowed 73 of 88 (83%) first downs through the air (83%) this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.