NFL Best Bets: My Top Spreads, Parlays, and Teasers for Week 2

Another week of NFL football has arrived. 

Naturally, that means it’s also time to handicap some NFL odds.

NFL Best Bets: Week 2 NFL Predictions

After I’ve handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my three best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.

I’ll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don’t have to go on faith alone. This week, strangely enough, I have selected three games with the exact same point spread.

If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion’s Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit. 

One rule to remember: Whenever there’s an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I’m almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play. 

My NFL Week 1 Best Bets were 2-1, so we’re off to a good start.

Ravens at Bengals (-3.5)

If you only looked at the scoreline from last week’s 25-9 win over the Texans, you might feel confident taking the points with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens here. 

But Baltimore has amassed all sorts of problems, even though we’re only days into the regular season. The implementation of Todd Monken’s offense is clearly going to take some time for the players to get used to, and Jackson is actively trying not to use his elite skill set as a runner.

The team has already piled up injuries, with J.K. Dobbins on IR and Marcus Williams hurt. OT Ronnie Stanley, CB Marlon Humphrey, and TE Mark Andrews are all questionable to play. 

Cincinnati got its face caved in by the Browns defense in a rainstorm in Week 1, but I think the Bengals’ problems stemmed mostly from Joe Burrow not playing in the preseason. I like them to handle a jumbled Ravens team this weekend. If there was a feeling among sharp bettors that Baltimore was live here, this number would have been bet to three days ago.

Best Bets: Bengals -3.5

Chiefs at Jaguars (+3.5)

The Chiefs are coming off a rare loss, and they’ve got extra time to prepare. Chris Jones is back in the fold. Travis Kelce might play. The Jaguars looked a bit sloppy in Indianapolis in Week 1.

The only real mystery here is why it took so long for this number to jump down to KC -3 throughout the first half of the week. It went to Chiefs -3.5 on Wednesday afternoon. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw KC -4 by Friday.

However, I wonder if we’re giving the Chiefs a little too much historical credit here. Jones is a big addition to the ferocity of the team and the effectiveness of the defense, but giving the Jags 3.5 points at home in a huge AFC game like this feels… dangerous? I’m expecting a competitive game that the Jags are ultimately in position to win in the fourth quarter.

Will they actually do it? That’s harder to say. But taking the points in such a game is pretty hard to argue with – especially when Kansas City’s skill position players are so underwhelming. 

Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5

Commanders at Broncos (-3.5)

The Broncos have a good quarterback, a Hall-of-Fame coach, and an infamous homefield advantage. The Commanders have a totally unproven quarterback and a coach who might get fired by or before the end of this season.

Doesn’t it feel like this number is a little light for Denver? Yet it hasn’t really moved all week. Strange.

I did a lot of investigating during the offseason into market trends, seeing which teams were consistently overrated or underrated. One of the things that I found was that Washington was a subpar home team against market expectations, falling far down the list of the best home teams in NFL betting. However, the Commanders were a pretty good road dog. 

My takeaway: Washington’s lame homefield advantage dilutes their market value as a home team. Those home data points, in turn, make them a slightly valuable commodity on the road, when they are incorrectly downgraded from their perceived homefield advantage.

In this matchup in particular, I think Washington’s defensive front – one of the real strengths of the team – will win a lot of matchups against Denver’s offensive line. Russell Wilson will undoubtedly take some bad sacks, which will help the Commanders’ cause.

I think Washington is live to win this game, send Denver to 0-2, and blow up a few Survivor pools along the way. 

Best Bet: Commanders +3.5

NFL Parlay For Week 2

One NFL parlay to consider for Week 2 is:

• Lions -225
• 49ers -375
• Cowboys -450
• Giants -250

Here, I’ve thrown four favorites I feel very confident about into a little moneyline parlay that pays out at +213.

You can click here for more information on how to build parlay bets with NFL odds.

NFL Teaser For Week 2

One NFL teaser to consider for Week 2 is:

• Steelers +8.5
• Texans +7.5
• San Francisco -2.5

A classic Wong set-up. This is a three-team, six-point teaser currently available at BetMGM for +160.

You can click here for more information on how to bet teasers in online sports betting.

NFL Survivor Pick For Week 2

I’m participating in a high-stakes Survivor game in Las Vegas this year, so I’m adding an extra dimension to my picks column this year. I’ll be sharing my weekly Survivor pick here, despite whatever strategic disadvantage it might bring.

Call it an added incentive to come back and read my NFL picks column every week.

In Week 2, I’m playing the New York Giants, who are -250 moneyline road favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. 

This looks like a risky decision at first blush. I’m backing a road team that just got blown out by 40 points in Week 1. Surely there are better options!

But I have my reasons. On the handicapping side, New York has been targeted by bettors in the ATS market throughout the week as a mid-sized favorite, with the number bouncing back and forth between -5.5 and -6 over the last 24 hours. It opened closer to -4. 

There’s also the matter of Arizona’s homefield advantage, which is famously among the worst in the NFL. Many professional handicappers do not factor homefield advantage for Arizona at all when calculating their own power rankings because it’s so negligible. 

On the human side of things, I like the Giants’ roster to go out and give a strong performance after getting absolutely humiliated by the Cowboys on national television. These are professionals. There is some pride involved.

Finally, there are the actual Survivor considerations. When am I ever going to feel more confident using the Giants this season?

If you have no idea what I’m talking about, you can click here for more information on how a football survivor pool works. Think about joining one next season!

Want More NFL Analysis?

If you like this sort of content, I’d recommend checking out my podcast, The Lion’s Edge, which I host on behalf of our content team here at BetMGM.

Every week, I highlight odds and bets that I think are interesting or ripe for advantage bettors, like me. I also bring on expert guests from both inside and outside of the sportsbook, so you can learn a little bit more about key topics in online sports betting.

Check it out and subscribe on the podcast player of your choice. You can also listen to some of the most recent episodes in the podcast player below.