NFL Favorites: Will Success Continue into 2025 Season?

For NFL bettors, the story of the 2024-25 NFL season is the overall success of market favorites. 

Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, no campaign produced a higher return on investment for backers consistently taking favorites, especially on the moneyline. 

All conference favorites finished the season 142-50 SU in 2024. A $100 bettor would have finished the year up $1,825, according to Action Network’s Bet Labs database. 

That marks the first positive return on investment since the 2017-18 season. It’s also only the third time since the 2003-04 season where conference favorites produced at least a 6% return on investment. 

Should bettors expect the success to continue into 2025? Let’s have a look at what influenced the success and if those achievements are sustainable. 

Which Favorites Experienced the Most Success? 

To better understand what drove the success of these favorites, I broke down the sample into three groups:

• Divisional Favorites
• Conference Favorites, Non-Divisional Games
• Non-Conference Favorites

The single biggest driver of success amongst those groups is conference favorites playing games outside their division. 

Such teams finished 73-23 SU in 2024 for a 14.9% return on investment, both records since 2003. 

While those teams finished above .500 record-wise every year since 2003, 2024 ended a seven-year streak of bettors losing money backing these teams. 

Essentially, that means the shortest favorites constantly earned wins for bettors. 

Shrink the initial sample down to teams that closed between -3.5 and -1: 39-11 SU for a 29.6% return on investment. 

That marked the fifth time since 2003 that such teams achieved at least a 10% ROI. Only once in the last four occurrences did that success replicate the following year. 

What’s most notable about these teams, though, is the amount of success late in the year. 

From game eight onward, these teams finished 24-1 with an 8.8 point average margin of victory. That marks the fewest losses by teams in qualifying games from that point in the season. 

It’s also the second straight year such teams finished with at least a 20% return on investment and the biggest ROI for teams in the database. 

However, the overall success of these teams should be scrutinized closely. 

In the initial 50-game sample of conference favorites playing divisional games, 28 wins came by seven or fewer points (56%). 

Comparatively, the last time bettors saw these teams produce at least a 10% return on investment (2016), 17 of 37 wins (46%) came by seven or fewer points. 

And yet, major regression occurred the very next year. In 2017, those short favorites went 25-23 SU for a -12.6% return on investment. 

Even if you evaluate the 2023 success of these teams – 30-15 SU, +9.2% ROI – no immediate regression signs existed. 

Of those 30 victories, 11 came by seven or fewer points. 

Statistical Traits of Successful Favorites, 2024

I initially theorized the success of these teams was driven by a strong offense. In fact, the opposite proved true. 

In 2024, conference favorites between -215 and -110 on the moneyline finished 71-26, including 41-11 outside the division. 

Within the initial 97-game sample, 10 teams finished with at least three wins and one or fewer losses:

• Detroit Lions (5-0)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-0)
• Washington Commanders (4-0)
• Houston Texans (4-0)
• Philadelphia Eagles (4-1)
• Indianapolis Colts (4-0)
• Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
• New York Jets (4-1)
• Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

Most of those teams experienced success because of two factors: an ability to convert third downs and deploy a strong defense. 

All of those teams ranked 15th or better in third-down conversion percentage. All but three (IND, NYJ, WAS) owned a top-12 defense by defensive DVOA. 

Comparatively, only four of those teams ranked 10th or better in offensive DVOA, with seven sitting in the top half of that category. 

But perhaps the single biggest driver of these teams’ success in such spots came with their ability to protect the football. 

Eight of 10 teams ranked inside the top half in terms of fewest giveaways per game. The exceptions: Indianapolis (29th) and Pittsburgh (19th). 

Issues of Sustainability With These Teams

Problems potentially arise for these teams when it comes to sustainability. 

Because these teams’ success is driven by defense as opposed to offense, immediate skepticism should arise. 

Year over year, defense is far more fluid than offense. In 2023 and 2024, seven of the league’s 10 best offenses by DVOA retained a spot in the top-10. 

Comparatively, only two teams that finished 10th or better in defensive DVOA in 2023 also finished the 2024 season 10th or better, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Additionally, giveaways are generally as fluid as defensive ranking. Here are the teams tied for 10th or better in giveaways each of the last two years:

• 2023: HOU, CIN, DAL, PIT, SEA, ARI, GB, LAR, NO, SF, TB
• 2024: BUF, LAC, BAL, KC, LAR, DET, PHI, CHI, WAS, PIT

In 2023, that group of teams combined to finish with a 103-84 record for a 6.8% return on investment. From an expected wins standpoint, they accumulated 100.6 wins. 

In 2024, they fell to 96-91 for a -5.5% return on investment. 

In 2024, the above group of teams finished 117-53 for a 13% return on investment. 

However, they combined for 105.3 expected wins, or nearly 12 wins over expected. 

Effects of the Dynamic Kickoff

The lone factor that could affect all of this is the dynamic kickoff rule introduced prior to last season. 

By changing the kickoff rules, the NFL opened the door for more points by handing teams an extra 10 yards in the event of a touchback. 

There’s no denying the change had an intended effect. After three straight years of unders winning at least a 3% ROI, they lost at a -10.9% ROI in 2024. 

In 2024, unders experienced their worst record since the 2010-11 season. It also marked only the third time since 2003 that betting unders resulted in a -10% ROI or worse. 

The potential red herring here is that 2024 saw a significant dropoff in turnovers. 

Last year, all 32 teams combined for 688 turnovers. Not since 2020 has an NFL season seen under 700 cumulative turnovers. 

However, these turnovers weren’t magically leading to more touchdowns. Otherwise, the margin of victory for these teams likely increases. 

In 2022, nine teams finished with a red zone touchdown percentage north of 60%. In 2023, that number dropped to eight before rising back up to nine in 2024. 

What about an increased willingness to go for it on fourth down?

One might theorize that because of the extra yardage, teams might exercise less caution. 

Somewhat interestingly, fourth-down attempts decreased year over year. 

Since the league expanded to 17 games in 2021, last year’s season produced the third-fewest fourth-down attempts in four years. 

Where an increase did occur is in team conversions on fourth down. Last year, 24 teams finished with a fourth-down conversion percentage at 50% or better. 

The previous high over a four-year span of 17 games came in at 22 in 2021. In 2023, 19 teams achieved such a feat. 

But of the 10 teams that led the league in fourth-down conversions, only four find themselves on the list of the most successful conference favorites. 

Accordingly, I’ll likely take a skeptical approach of the most successful favorites in 2025, given the methodology behind their success.