- How to live bet the second half total if the first half proves high scoring.
- The angle in which to back Patrick Mahomes in the second half.
- Use this first half margin to fade the 49ers in the second half.
Countless Super Bowl markets exist before the game starts, but here’s a look at NFL live betting strategies based on live Super Bowl odds.
Below, prospective live bettors can find a few different live betting targets for Super Bowl 58 based on team trends for both the season and historically.
Be sure to catch the latest NFL betting lines in the lead-up to kickoff between the Chiefs and 49ers.
Scenarios to Live Bet the Super Bowl
Defense is Optional in First Half
The Chiefs have proved the Kings of the second half under this season.
Through 20 games, the Chiefs are 18-2 to the under in the second half, including 7-0 when the first half features 25 or more points and 10-1 when the first half features 24 or more points.
At the same time, there’s a profitable angle to be considered if the first half finishes under the total, currently set at 22.5 points at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
This season, five Chiefs games have finished under the first half total by at least 2.5 points.
All five of those games went on to finish under the second half total.
The tricky part here – bettors want the first half to prove high scoring because the 49ers excel to the under when that occurs.
In 13 San Francisco games this season where the first half goes over the pregame total by at least a half point, the second half under is 8-4-1.
When it goes over by at least six points, the second half under is 5-2 for San Francisco.
Conversely, San Francisco has seen higher scoring second halves when the first features few points.
In five 49ers games this season where the first half went under by at least a point, the over was 3-2 in the second half.
Chiefs Underdogs for Second Half Spread
There’s a big difference in the Chiefs’ second half ATS record when they’re a favorite vs. an underdog.
For his career, Patrick Mahomes is 47-49-4 ATS in the second half when he’s listed as a favorite.
On the 12 occasions he’s closed an underdog in the second half, Mahomes is 8-3-1 ATS.
Shrink the sample down to the 2023-24 season, and bettors will find Mahomes is 2-0 ATS in the second half as an underdog compared to 8-9 ATS as a favorite.
At the same time, Super Bowl 58 represents a tricky spot for the Chiefs, who face a 49ers team that has closed a second-half favorite in all 19 games this season.
Their record in those spots? 12-7 ATS, including 6-3 ATS at -3.5 or shorter in the second half.
The one area where San Francisco struggles is when they’re a favorite in the second half, having lost the first half.
In four qualifying games this season, San Francisco is 1-3 ATS in the second half when they’re behind compared to 10-4 ATS when they’re ahead or tied.
Conversely, the Chiefs are 5-6 ATS in the second half with Mahomes when they’re ahead compared to 4-3 ATS when they’re tied or trailing.
Chiefs Second Half Moneyline, Ahead vs. Behind
Eliminate the spread entirely, and bettors will find the Chiefs have struggled against the second half moneyline when they’re ahead.
In 20 games this season, Kansas City has found themselves ahead at halftime 12 times. In those games, they’re 4-8 straight up in the second half.
When they’re tied or behind, the Chiefs are an entirely different animal.
On the eight remaining occasions the Chiefs went into halftime tied or trailing, they’re 6-1-1 straight up in the second half.
When the Chiefs’ halftime margin is between 0 and -4 points, they’re a perfect 4-0 straight up in the second half this season.
That’s indicative of a strong record for Patrick Mahomes in his career during such scenarios.
On 25 occasions Mahomes found himself tied or down four or fewer points, he’s 19-6 straight up.
49ers Second Half Moneyline, Ahead vs. Behind
The tricky part with betting Mahomes in Super Bowl LVIII when he’s behind? The 49ers have excelled this season in the second half when they’re ahead.
Admittedly, it’s a difficult sample to evaluate given they’ve finished ahead at halftime in 14 of 19 games this season, going 11-3 straight up in the second half when they’re ahead.
In the five remaining games where they’re tied or trailing entering the second half, San Francisco is 3-2 straight up in the second half, including 2-0 behind seven or more.
The slightly good news? San Francisco has struggled in the second half when the margin is slim.
On seven occasions the halftime margin is between -4 and 4, the 49ers are 4-3 straight up in the second half.
In other good news, a lot of San Francisco’s second half success has come against the NFC.
In 14 conference games, San Francisco is 12-2 straight up in the second half.
In five non-conference games, they’re 2-3 straight up, including 0-3 when the margin is between -4 and four points at halftime.
NFL Betting Odds at BetMGM
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