AFC West Predictions, Odds & Standings, 2025

A year removed from the Chiefs dominating the AFC West, oddsmakers have shrunk the Chiefs’ price to win the division.

Kansas City closed at -200 to win the AFC West in 2024. Now, they’re only a -150 favorite after reaching their third straight Super Bowl. 

The Los Angeles Chargers (+290) sit second on the board after a playoff campaign, while the Denver Broncos (+450) rank a distant third after reaching the postseason. 

Finally, the Las Vegas Raiders, behind new coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith, are +2200 to win the division. 

Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the AFC West division winner along with my AFC West prediction. 

AFC West Odds, 2025 Division Winner

• Kansas City Chiefs: -150
• Los Angeles Chargers: +290
• Denver Broncos: +425
• Las Vegas Raiders: +2200

AFC West Prediction

Based on Denver’s strength in the trenches and their expected positive regression, my AFC West prediction is for the Broncos to Win the AFC West (+425). 

BET: Broncos to Win the AFC West @ +450

There’s an argument to be made that the best strategy here is to bet the “no” on Kansas City to win the division. 

Secret to no one is that this team finished 10-0 in games decided by seven or fewer points, with five of those wins coming by three or fewer points. 

But rather than take a shorter price on that market, I’m electing to go all-in on a Broncos team with a strong defense and powerful play in the trenches. 

Denver ranked fourth in defensive DVOA last year, per ftnfantasy.com. While it came against the 20th-hardest set of offenses, they’ll benefit from a third-place schedule this year. 

But the key element about the Broncos driving this bet is their strength along the offensive and defensive lines. 

Per ESPN analytics, the Broncos led the league in pass-block win rate and run-block win rate. Defensively, they ranked second and eighth in the corresponding metrics. 

Denver qualifies as the inverse of Kansas City: a positive regression candidate. Albeit against a pretty easy schedule, the Broncos finished 1-6 in games decided by seven or fewer points. 

Three of those losses came within the division, including both games against the Chargers with a scheduling disadvantage. 

In the first meeting against Los Angeles, the Chargers owned a +7 net rest edge. In the second, they traveled to play on TNF with Los Angeles playing consecutive home games. 

Irrespective of your opinion about the Chiefs, there should not be as big a gap in the market between the Chargers and Broncos as currently expressed. 

From an offensive standpoint, Denver kept its skill group intact while making a quality addition in tight end Evan Engram. 

That should allow for some improvement by Bo Nix in his sophomore campaign. 

Last year, Nix ranked 10th in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected from Week 7 onward, including fourth from Week 11 onward, per rbsdm.com. 

There’s an argument to be had LA drew an easier set of unique opponents – Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Miami vs. Green Bay, Cincinnati and New York (A) for Denver. 

However, I’m focusing on the fact that Denver stayed competitive in three losses to the Chargers and Chiefs last year. 

If the Broncos can flip some of those results in 2025, there’s an argument they own higher win equity than these odds suggest. Accordingly, I like Denver to win the AFC West in 2025. 

AFC West Standings & Live Odds, 2025