- Patrick Mahomes (+500) is the favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards.
- Tua Tagovailoa, the leader in passing yards for 2023-24, is +850 to lead the league.
- Four of the last six leaders have cleared 5,000 passing yards.
For the upcoming NFL season, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+500) is the favorite to lead the league in passing yards.
Mahomes earned the regular season crown for the stat in 2022 when he passed for 5,250 yards. In 2023, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (+850) led the league with 4,624 yards.
Other notable prices on the odds board include Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (+600), Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (+750) and Lions quarterback Jared Goff (+750).
Below is a full list of NFL betting lines for the title, as well as the current rankings.
NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds
| Quarterback | Passing Yards Leader Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 |
| CJ Stroud | +600 |
| Dak Prescott | +750 |
| Jared Goff | +750 |
| Joe Burrow | +800 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +850 |
| Kirk Cousins | +1200 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1200 |
| Jordan Love | +1500 |
| Josh Allen | +2000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2500 |
| Brock Purdy | +2500 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2500 |
| Baker Mayfield | +3000 |
| Caleb Williams | +3000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +3000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +3500 |
| Justin Herbert | +3500 |
| Derek Carr | +4000 |
| Geno Smith | +4000 |
| Kyler Murray | +5000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +6600 |
| Anthony Richardson | +8000 |
| Bo Nix | +8000 |
| J.J. McCarthy | +8000 |
| Will Levis | +8000 |
| Bryce Young | +10000 |
| Daniel Jones | +10000 |
| Jayden Daniels | +10000 |
NFL Passing Yards Leader Prediction
Jared Goff to Lead the League in Passing Yards (+750)
The choice for me here is between Goff and Dak Prescott (+750) but Goff’s superior offensive weapons swings the choice in his direction.
Last season, Goff finished second in passing yards and gets some good advantages this season.
Detroit plays 14 of their 17 games this season indoors, where Goff has historically performed much better.
With Ben Johnson as his offensive coordinator, Goff has thrown for 300 or more yards in 10 of 34 regular-season games. Only two of those games were outside.
Additionally, Goff has a much higher floor when he plays the game inside. Last season, Goff’s two worst performances came on the road in an outdoor game.
Dating back to the 2022 season, Goff averages 285.9 passing yards per game in contests played either indoors or in stadiums with a retractable roof.
Over that same span, Goff’s passing yards average in outdoor contests drops to 247.5 yards per game with only three games over 275 passing yards.
Detroit’s underlying metrics back up these performances. Since the 2022 season, the Lions are fifth in passing EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com.
Add in Detroit’s 17 opponents averaged a pass defense EPA per play ranking of 18 last season and I’ll back Goff to take this year’s crown.
NFL Passing Yards Current Rankings
Check back during the regular season for the current leaders in NFL passing yards.
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