Super Bowl Odds 2024: Latest Betting Predictions for NFL Champion

Below, bettors can find both opening and live Super Bowl 2024 odds from the BetMGM online sportsbook for each team to claim the Lombardi Trophy.

All NFL odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.

Super Bowl Odds Breakdown

*Odds Reflective as of Dec. 17

Super Bowl Predictions: Who Will Win Super Bowl 2024?

Detroit Lions Super Bowl Odds (+1200)

There’s an argument to be made the Lions should have made the Super Bowl last year.

However, a second half crumble ultimately allowed the 49ers to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas.

For next year, I’ll turn to the team that’s realistically one unit – a pass defense – away from a complete roster.

During the 2023-24 regular season, Detroit finished seventh in total DVOA – fifth in offensive DVOA, 13th in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.

Don’t let those metrics tell the whole story, though. In terms of their defensive output, the Lions led the league in rush defense DVOA but ranked 16th in pass defense.

Given their offense will play 14 of 17 games indoors next season, they will likely replicate that success.

The Lions also aren’t a one-dimensional offensive unit, as they ranked top-seven in both pass offense DVOA and rush offense DVOA. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson also returns, which leaves their main coaching staff intact.

The last bit of good news? Detroit has cap space with which to work.

According to spotrac.com, Detroit has the eighth-most cap space for the 2024 offseason ($48.1 million).

That should give them the chance to secure their secondary while potentially adding some valuable skill players to an explosive offense.

Add in 11 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners have opened the season with futures odds shorter than 12/1 – all but one have posted at 20/1 or shorter – and I’ll bet the Lions at 10/1 or better.

Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl Betting Odds (+1600)

I’m already backing the Eagles in my NFC East Division Winner Predictions and think they’re similarly a good bet to win Super Bowl LIX.

Although there’s an argument to be made that regression is on the horizon — Philly finished 9-8 in expected record last season — there’s simultaneously an argument it’s because of injuries.

In 2023, the Eagles lost 57 adjusted games to injury on the defensive end. Only three other teams — New England, Carolina and Arizona — suffered a worse blow defensively.

That should help explain the fact Philadelphia produced the following defensive metrics:

• Defensive EPA/play: 29th
• Passing EPA/play: 28th
• Rushing EPA/play: 29th

Only a year ago, the Eagles ranked fourth, first and 23rd in those categories, respectively.

They’ve made good offseason moves to address last year’s issues. Safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson returns from Detroit, and defensive end Bryce Huff arrives from New York.

Most notably, the Eagles added Saquon Barkley to an offense that sits third in EPA per play since last year, including first in rushing EPA per play.

Finally, even though Jason Kelce retired, this remains an Eagles offensive line that has rated out a top-five unit in two straight seasons.

Assuming the defense experiences a healthier season, back the Eagles to reach their second Super Bowl in three years and take the title in 2025.

Who is Predicted to Win the Super Bowl? 

Based on preseason odds, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorites to win Super Bowl 59. At preseason odds of +450, Kansas City had an implied probability of 18.2% to win their third consecutive championship. 

However, live odds have dropped the Chiefs from the status of market favorites. As it stands, the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills(+425) are co-favorites to win Super Bowl 59.

Both teams opened at +1200 before the season to capture a Super Bowl win. Detroit narrowly missed out on Super Bowl 58, losing in the NFC Championship game. Meanwhile, Buffalo fell in the divisional round against Kansas City.

Based on preseason odds, the 49ers (+600, 14.3%) were the second most likely to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Ravens (+1100, 8.3%). 

A disastrous campaign for the 49ers has them priced at +100000 following Week 15 while the Ravens are +800 to win the Super Bowl.

NFL Public Betting Trends: Chiefs as Super Bowl Favorites

The Chiefs have now won back-to-back Super Bowls, and Patrick Mahomes is arguably the most talented quarterback in the history of football. Of course the Chiefs are betting favorites as the 2024 season approaches. 

At BetMGM, a whopping 13.3% of bets and 18.7% of the futures money is backing Kansas City to achieve the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat, as of Aug. 27. Naturally, Mahomes is also the betting favorite in the NFL MVP odds market. 

NFL Betting Odds: The Rookie QB Theory Explained

My colleague Chase Kiddy spends a lot of time every year evaluating and discussing the year-to-year implications of what he calls Rookie Quarterback Theory. 

If you’re new here, it goes something like this: Since the NFL restructured the rookie scale in 2011, teams with effective quarterbacks on rookie quarterbacks have consistently been among the most effective clubs in the league. 

Think about it. If a team is getting 80% of the production of an All-Pro quarterback, but at only 20% of the cost … how could you not be successful? There’s so much extra money for those teams to spend on building out the roster’s middle class of playmakers. 

It pays to consider which teams fit the bill of a potentially high-achieving team with an effective, underpaid quarterback. In 2024, that list includes:

• San Francisco (+600)
• Philadelphia Eagles, kind of (+1400)
• Houston Texans (+1600)
• Chicago Bears (+4000)
• Indianapolis Colts (+6600)
• Minnesota Vikings (+10000)
• Las Vegas Raiders (+10000)

Jalen Hurts has a cap hit of around $13 million, making him a tweener. 

A 5% cap hit is still a great deal for a playoff-caliber quarterback, making Hurts a guy that fulfills the spirit of this rule – even if he is exiting his rookie contract era.