- The Lions are -3.5 point favorites vs the Packers
- Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Green Bay Packers (9-3-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (11-1-0) on Dec. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Detroit, MI.
The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Packers vs. Lions Over/Under is 51.5 total points for the game.
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Packers vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Packers | +3.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +155 |
| Lions | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -190 |
Packers vs. Lions Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Packers vs Lions Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today
- Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receptions Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Tucker Kraft has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.95 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
- David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 26% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Packers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| David Montgomery (Det) | +400 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) | +450 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | +525 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | +750 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Packers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 38.5 -110 | 38.5 -120 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 48.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 70.5 -115 | 70.5 -115 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 49.5 -125 | 49.5 -105 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 13.5 -135 | 13.5 +100 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Packers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 66.5 -115 | 66.5 -115 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 59.5 -110 | 59.5 -120 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 1.5 -120 | 1.5 -110 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 69.5 -115 | 69.5 -115 |
Packers Best Bets:
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers art 6-6 (-0.65 Units / -4.91% ROI).
- Packers are 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 30.27% ROI
- Packers are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -12.12% ROI
- Packers are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 9-3 (+5.7 Units / 43.51% ROI).
- Lions are 11-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 18.26% ROI
- Lions are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.65 Units / -12.45% ROI
- Lions are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 3.8% ROI
Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Packers are undefeated (8-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .529.
The Packers were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .371.
The Packers are undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .594.
The Packers are undefeated (4-0) on the road this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .255.
The Lions are 4-2 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .275.
The Lions are undefeated (6-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .366.
The Lions are undefeated (6-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .529.
Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions have run successful plays on 54.5% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on 50.3% of pass attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Lions have run successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on 55.6% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Lions have been successful on 50.3% of plays they have run against a base front this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 45.7% of plays with a base front this season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
The Packers have averaged 0.14 epa per play against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 0.11 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Packers have run successful plays on just 31.6% of rush attempts against a stacked front this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 33.3% of rush attempts with a stacked front this season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Packers have a third down conversion rate of 24.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 21.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats
The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of plays against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Packers have averaged -1.07 epa per play against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
The Packers have run 20% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Lions have 28 TDs that were 20+ yards since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Lions have run 23% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 34.4 on 3rd and long (50 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 80.8.
The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 51% of pass attempts with a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 27% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Packers defense forced three and outs on 14% of opponent drives in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
The Lions defense has allowed opponents to catch just 17 of 47 passes (36% Reception Pct) in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.5 against play action passes (69 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 103.0.
The Lions’ opponents have averaged 8.3 Passing Attempts per TD (50 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) in the red zone this season — best Pass Attempts Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.2.
The Lions defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 34% (17 completions/50 attempts) in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 56%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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