- The Panthers are a 11-point home underdog against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 14 road games following a loss.
- My Panthers vs. Chiefs prediction is for Carolina to cover the spread.
It’s the biggest spread on the board for Week 12 as the Carolina Panthers host the Kansas City Chiefs.
Don’t look now, but the Panthers have won two games in a row. Right before their Week 11 bye, Carolina dispatched the Giants 20-17 in Germany.
Kansas City suffered its first loss of the season in Week 11. As road dogs in Buffalo, Kansas City fell 30-21.
Bet on Panthers vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Panthers vs. Chiefs
Panthers vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on Carolina’s rest advantage and Patrick Mahomes’ weak record as a big favorite, my Panthers vs. Chiefs prediction is the Panthers Spread (+11, -110).
Time will tell whether I can actually muster the courage to make this bet. However, the only bettable side is the Panthers.
History tells us that big underdogs with time to prepare are a valuable proposition.
Since 2003, underdogs at +8.5 or higher with 8-15 days between games are 63% ATS, when the opponent has 7-8 days between games.
When those dogs fall between +8.5 and +11: 55-32-2 ATS, including 20-5 ATS in non-conference games.
Additionally, Mahomes has struggled to cover big spreads in his career.
The Texas Tech product is 19-27-3 ATS as a touchdown favorite or higher, including 2-8 in non-conference games.
Just this season, Mahomes is 0-3-1 ATS in that spot. However, three of those games came in divisional matchups with the AFC West.
But from a matchup standpoint, there’s not a ton supporting a bet on the Panthers.
Their defense ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play and they’re facing a Chiefs offense likely returning Isiah Pacheco to the lineup.
The only real strength of Carolina is their ability to run the ball. Entering Week 12, Carolina ranks 13th in rush EPA per play and 12th in rush success rate, per rbsdm.com.
But Kansas City’s run defense is outstanding. Kansas City ranks third in opponent yards per rush attempt, rush EPA per play and rush success rate.
If Carolina can’t run the ball, I question how they score points and stay within this number.
That aside, it’s the Panthers or nothing for me on Sunday.
Betting Panthers vs. Chiefs: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 53% | 43% | 55% | 97% |
| Panthers | 47% | 57% | 45% | 3% |
