Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 20, 2024, 11:46 AM

The Dolphins are -7 point favorites vs the Patriots
Total (Over/Under): 46 points
Watch this game on CBS

The New England Patriots (3-8-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (4-6-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami Gardens, FL.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Patriots	+7 -110	46 -110	+280
Dolphins	-7 -110	46 -110	-350

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 56.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Drake Maye has hit the Carries Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Drake Maye has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.50 Units / 30% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 64% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 81% ROI)
Odell Beckham Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 49% ROI)
Tua Tagovailoa has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.15 Units / 57% ROI)
Tyreek Hill has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.70 Units / 17% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+2.85 Units / 27% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+2.74 Units / 28% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.25 Units / 11% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 10% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.85 Units / 12% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+0.55 Units / 2% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.50 Units / 5% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots art 4-6 (-2.5 Units / -20.75% ROI).

Patriots are 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 1.82% ROI
Patriots are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Patriots are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 4-6 (-2.8 Units / -24.67% ROI).

Dolphins are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -24.69% ROI
Dolphins are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Dolphins are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .324.

The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

The Patriots were 1-7 (.125) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Dolphins are 5-5 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .269.

The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have gone three and out on 16.2% of their drives this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 16.7% of opponent drives this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Dolphins ran 59.4% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots allowed their opponents to run62.5% of plays in their territory last week — worst in NFL.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 66.7% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — T-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed successful plays on 61.3% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have gone three and out on 26.3% of their drives this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have forced three and outs on 27.6% of opponent drives this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Patriots went three and out on 0% of their drives last week — T-best in NFL. The Dolphins forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives last week — T-worst in NFL.

Patriots RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 6.7% of 600 carries since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 10+ yards on just 7.8% of carries to RBs since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.

The Patriots averaged -0.56 epa per play against a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Patriots went three and out on 31% of their drives last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 7% of the time this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Dolphins have scored 10 TDs from their own territory since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 8 of 22 plays (36%) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense has allowed 6.2 yards after the catch (217 RAC / 35 receptions) to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 8.4.

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 80.4 against play action passes (114 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.

The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Patriots defense have allowed 0.35 epa per play against play action passes this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.07.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.75 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.49 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Dolphins defense allowed successful plays on 12% of rush attempts with a base front in Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

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