- The Rams are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Bills.
- The Bills have won each of their last 11 games in December.
- My Rams vs. Bills prediction is for Buffalo to cover the spread.
After capturing the AFC East division title, the Bills travel to Los Angeles for a meeting with the Rams.
Buffalo eased their way to a 35-10 win and cover over the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. That clinched the division for Buffalo, which remains a game back of Kansas City for the top seed.
Los Angeles earned a 21-14 road win over the Saints in Week 13 to get back to 6-6. Not since Week 9 have the Rams earned back-to-back victories given the chance to accomplish that feat.
Bet on Rams vs. Bills and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 14 Odds: Rams vs. Bills
2024-12-15T21:25:00ZBills at Lions
Rams vs. Bills Prediction
Based on the Bills’ success against the NFC this year and the Rams’ weak defensive record, my Rams vs. Bills prediction is the Bills Spread (-4.5, -110).
Perhaps it’s an oversimplification, but Buffalo has dominated both the NFC West this season.
They’re 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against that division, including a cover in Seattle as 3.5-point favorites.
While it’s difficult to quantify the strength of the Rams offense amidst loads of injury issues, I don’t trust this defense one bit.
Los Angeles ranks 21st in defensive DVOA, having faced the 14th-hardest set of opposing offenses.
There will come a point the Rams defense positively regresses. However, at home against a Bills offense second in DVOA against the 13th-hardest set of defenses likely isn’t that time.
If this game turns into a shootout like the odds indicate – the total is set at 49.5 points – I trust the Bills a lot more than I trust the Rams.
Los Angeles has also struggled this season as home underdogs.
An unlikely comeback against the 49ers and an outright win against the Vikings are LA’s only covers as home dogs this season.
But the Rams have yet to cover this number in three tries as an underdog against a team currently fifth or better in total DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Sample five games against teams 10th or better in DVOA, and bettors will find that the Rams are 1-4 against this number in such spots.
While there’s an argument this is a letdown spot for Buffalo after capturing the division, the chance at the one seed likely remains a priority.
For that reason, it’s Buffalo or nothing for me on Sunday.
Betting Rams vs. Bills: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 70% | 72% | 56% | 43% |
| Rams | 30% | 28% | 44% | 57% |
