- The Buccaneers are -13.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The New Orleans Saints (5-11-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Tampa, FL.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).
The Saints vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Saints | +13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +600 |
| Buccaneers | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -900 |
Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 77.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Saints vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Buccaneers vs Saints and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 76% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bucky Irving has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.13 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jalen McMillan has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Saints
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans (TB) | 93.5 -115 | 93.5 -115 |
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.36 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+3.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints art 6-10 (-5 Units / -28.57% ROI).
- Saints are 5-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -31.99% ROI
- Saints are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
- Saints are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 10-6 (+3.4 Units / 19.26% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 5.9% ROI
- Buccaneers are 11-5 when betting the Over for +5.5 Units / 31.25% ROI
- Buccaneers are 5-11 when betting the Under for -7.1 Units / -40.34% ROI
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints are winless (0-10) when trailing at the end of the third quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .158.
The Saints are winless (0-7) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .394.
The Saints are winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
The Saints are winless (0-7) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .247.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Buccaneers are winless (0-3) when within 3 points at the two minute warning this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Buccaneers are winless (0-4) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
The Buccaneers are 2-2 (.500) when not forcing a turnover this season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .284.
Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been successful on 49.4% of plays they have run with motion this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 47.2% of plays against motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have been successful on 50.0% of plays they have run against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.4% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have been successful on 56.2% of plays they have run against a stacked front this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 60.8% of plays with a stacked front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Saints have run successful plays on 60.9% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on 59.5% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Saints have been successful on 54.8% of plays they have run against a heavy rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 55.0% of plays with a heavy rush this season — worst in NFL.
The Saints went three and out on 45.5% of their drives last week — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers forced three and outs on 40% of opponent drives last week — T-3rd-best in NFL.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints targeted WRs 33% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/36 plays) in Week 17 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Saints have averaged 7.2 yards per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.
The Saints have averaged -0.82 epa per play on play action passes since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.07.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 50% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Buccaneers threw for 5 TDs in Week 17 — most in NFL.
The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of 31% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 73% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense has allowed first downs on 36% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 56%.
The Saints defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (20 completions/50 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 43.6 on contested throws (158 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 68.7.
The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 93% of rush attempts against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed an average of 1.6 yards after contact per carry (773 carries) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
The Buccaneers defense hurried opposing QBs on 68% of pass attempts in Week 17 — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Buccaneers vs Saints and all NFL games with BetMGM
More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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