- The Packers are -14.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 42 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ABC | ESPD
The New Orleans Saints (5-9-0) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (10-4-0) on Dec. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Green Bay, WI.
The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).
The Saints vs. Packers Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.
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Saints vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Saints | +14.5 -120 | 42 -110 | +650 |
| Packers | -14.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -1000 |
Saints vs. Packers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 82.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Saints vs Packers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today
- Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+3.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jordan Love has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Jacobs has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luke Musgrave has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jayden Reed has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.63 Units / 55% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.61 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+4.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Packers Best Bets:
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.13 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.59 Units / 29% ROI)
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints art 6-8 (-2.8 Units / -18.3% ROI).
- Saints are 5-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -24.87% ROI
- Saints are 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Saints are 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / ROI
Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 7-6 (+0.35 Units / 2.3% ROI).
- Packers are 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 26.93% ROI
- Packers are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.04% ROI
- Packers are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.6% ROI
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers
The Saints are 2-11 (.154) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Saints are winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .251.
The Saints are winless (0-4) vs top 10 run defenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .279.
The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Packers are 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .316.
The Packers were undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .654.
The Packers were undefeated (4-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .607.
The Packers are 10-4 (.714) this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have run successful plays on 51.9% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed successful plays on 52.2% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Packers have rushed the ball on 50.1% of plays from scrimmage this season — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Saints have allowed 5.2 yards per carry this season — T-worst in NFL.
Packers TEs have gained 621 yards on 51 receptions (12.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 11.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Saints have been successful on 49.3% of plays they have run against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 49.0% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Saints have a third down conversion rate of just 9.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 11.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Saints have run successful plays on 53.1% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed successful plays on 52.5% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Saints have scored 5 TDs from their own territory this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Saints ran 5% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half in Week 15 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Saints have thrown the ball 75% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/16 plays) in close and late situations since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.
Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats
The Packers scored on 50% of their drives in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Packers have run successful plays on 14% of pass attempts against a light rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Packers have run 21% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Packers had a third down conversion rate of 88% against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense has allowed first downs on 35% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 56%.
The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Saints defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (18 completions/46 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Saints defense allowed 6.8 yards per dropback (1,136 yards/166 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 32.5 on 3rd and long (58 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 81.2.
The Packers defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 4 of 985 attempts (0%) since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 1%.
The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 61.3 with a light front (91 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 86.9.
The Packers defense forced three and outs on 14% of opponent drives in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
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- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
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- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
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