Seahawks vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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(Kyusung Gong/AP Photo)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2024, 9:48 AM

The 49ers are -6.5 point favorites vs the Seahawks
Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Seattle Seahawks (4-5-0) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (5-4-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Santa Clara, CA.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Seahawks vs. 49ers Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.

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Seahawks vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Seahawks	+6.5 -110	48.5 -110	+240
49ers	-6.5 -110	48.5 -110	-300

Seahawks vs. 49ers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Seahawks vs 49ers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Seahawks will cover the spread with 64.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Seahawks players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Seahawks Player Prop Bets Today

Sam Howell has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Geno Smith has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.45 Units / 51% ROI)
Noah Fant has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Sam Howell has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Sam Howell has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Brock Purdy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Brock Purdy has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.15 Units / 69% ROI)
Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
Christian McCaffrey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
Brock Purdy has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 39% ROI)

Seahawks Best Bets:

The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
The Seattle Seahawks have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+5.45 Units / 43% ROI)
The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+4.85 Units / 42% ROI)
The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.15 Units / 16% ROI)

49ers Best Bets:

The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 32% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.43 Units / 31% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.80 Units / 20% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.45 Units / 35% ROI)

Seahawks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Seahawks art 2-6 (-4.6 Units / -46.46% ROI).

Seahawks are 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -18.62% ROI
Seahawks are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Seahawks are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 4-5 (-1.4 Units / -14.29% ROI).

49ers are 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -18.83% ROI
49ers are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
49ers are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Seattle Seahawks: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks are undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 7 explosive plays this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .645.

The Seahawks were 3-7 (.300) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.

The Seahawks were 4-3 (.571) when not forcing a turnover last season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Seahawks were 6-4 (.600) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Seattle Seahawks

The 49ers are 15-3 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 139.5 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers were winless (0-5) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The 49ers are 12-3 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Seahawks has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 33 s since the 2023 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have a third down conversion rate of 45.8% since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Seahawks defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 43.1% since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have run 20.5% offensive plays in the red zone this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed their opponent to run 19.6% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL.

The 49ers have run 18.9% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Seahawks have allowed their opponent to run 16.6% of plays in the red zone since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Seahawks have run successful plays on just 33.8% of rush attempts with motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on just 37.2% of rush attempts against motion this season — T-5th-best in NFL.

Seahawks RBs have averaged just 78.1 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed an average of just 96.1 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Seahawks have run successful plays on just 37.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The 49ers have pressured opposing QBs on 45.9% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

Seattle Seahawks Offense: Important Stats

The Seahawks ran successful plays on 68% of plays against a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Seahawks averaged 0.63 epa per play against a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Seahawks have run 2% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Seahawks ran successful plays on 71% of pass attempts against a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers ran successful plays on 53% of rush attempts against a base front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 21% of rush attempts against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The 49ers have not gone three and out on any of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The 49ers averaged 9.3 yards per attempt (4,577 yards/491 attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.0.

Seattle Seahawks Defense: Important Stats

The Seahawks defense forced three and outs on 7% of opponent drives in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

20% of the plays run against the Seahawks have been in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Seahawks defense have forced three and outs on 32% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Seahawks defense forced three and outs on 2% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense has allowed successful plays on 15% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 40% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 14% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The 49ers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 50.7 first read passes (53 Pass Attempts) since Week 7 — best in NFL; League Avg: 97.8.

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