- The Seahawks are -5.5 against the Broncos in Week 1.
- Seattle has won five of their previous six home openers.
- Denver matches a historically profitable system in Week 1.
To begin the Mike MacDonald era in Seattle, the Seahawks welcome the Broncos for their home opener.
Both teams produced disappointing campaigns last season. Seattle started strong and sat at 6-3 after nine games. However, five losses in their last eight doomed their postseason hopes.
Denver finished third in the AFC West at 8-9. The good news? After starting 1-5, the Broncos finished 7-4 thanks to improvements defensively.
Let’s take a look at the NFL Betting Lines for the Week 1 game, along with my prediction.
Seahawks vs. Broncos Odds
- Seattle Seahawks Moneyline: -250
- Denver Broncos Moneyline: +200
- Game Spread: Seahawks -5.5
- Game Over/Under: 42 Points
Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction
My prediction for this Week 1 game is that the Broncos cover +5.5 points. However, it’s more so a lean rather than a play.
Trusting rookie quarterback Bo Nix in Seattle is daunting, but trusting the Seahawks as favorites is even more terrifying.
The market doesn’t necessarily agree. Seattle opened at -4.5 and has received 50% of bets placed and 62% of dollars wagered to cover the spread.
However, history tells us it’s historically wise to fade spread moves in Week 1.
Since 2005-06, Week 1 underdogs that move between +0.5 and +2.5 points from market open are 58.9% ATS.
It’s even more profitable when the dog missed the postseason the previous year. On those occasions, the dog improves to 57-31-1 (64.8%) ATS.
Plus, Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is historically terrible as a favorite. For his career, he’s 10-15-1 ATS in such spots, including 4-9 ATS at -3.5 or higher.
But beyond those trends, it’s difficult to make a case for the Broncos based on roster construction.
Outside of Patrick Surtain II, there’s little quality in the secondary.
Additionally, Denver’s front seven allowed 10 or more yards to opposing runners at the third-highest rate, per sharpfootballanalysis.com.
Given there are other bets on the board I prefer, I’ll pass on betting the Broncos until I learn more about this year’s team.
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