- The Seahawks are a 3-point home underdog against the Vikings.
- The Vikings have lost 10 straight road games against NFC West opponents.
- My Seahawks vs. Vikings prediction is for Seattle to cover the spread.
A marquee NFC matchup with huge playoff implications takes place Sunday in Seattle.
The Seahawks, off a loss and non-cover as home dogs to the Packers, welcome the Vikings to Lumen Field. Currently, Seattle is 8-6 and sits sixth in the NFC playoff picture.
The Vikings arrive in Seattle riding a seven-game winning streak. On Monday, Minnesota captured a 30-12 win over the Bears, their second consecutive multi-score win.
Bet on Seahawks vs. Vikings and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 16 Odds: Seahawks vs. Vikings
Seahawks vs. Vikings Prediction
Based on Seattle’s rest edge and their strong defensive play, my Seahawks vs. Vikings prediction is the Seahawks Spread (+3, -110).
It appears Geno Smith is likely to play after leaving on Sunday with a knee injury. The line appears to indicate that as well, with Seattle dropping from +4.5 at market open.
Transparently, I’m running out of actual statistical support to fade this Vikings team. In this spot, it’s all about the negative rest edge against one of the league’s best defenses.
If there’s a knock against Minnesota, it’s that their offense isn’t exactly battle-tested. The Vikings rank 13th in offensive DVOA, having faced the 12th-easiest set of opposing defenses.
Conversely, Seattle ranks 11th in defensive DVOA having faced the hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
While Minnesota’s seven-game winning streak is no weak feat, the level of competition leaves much to be desired.
Those seven wins have come against Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Chicago twice, Arizona and Atlanta.
Lump Seattle into that group, and this spot equals the first time Minnesota has played a top-12 defense by DVOA since Week 7.
History also tells us it’s wise to fade the league’s strongest teams late in the season.
Since 2003, home underdogs facing a team with a win percentage north of 85% in games 12-16 are 35-15-1 ATS (70%).
When those underdogs own a win percentage north of 46%, they improve to 21-5-1 ATS (80.8%).
As a result, I’ll back the Seahawks to keep Sunday’s game close and end their weak ATS run as home dogs this season.
Betting Seahawks vs. Vikings: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 78% | 79% | 57% | 48% |
| Seahawks | 22% | 21% | 43% | 52% |
