- The Bills are -10 point favorites vs the Steelers
- Total (Over/Under): 35.5 points
- Watch this AFC Wild Card Playoff game on CBS | PAR+
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (11-6) on Jan. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).
The Steelers vs. Bills Over/Under is 35.5 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | +10 -110 | 35.5 -110 | +380 |
| Bills | -10 -110 | 35.5 -110 | -500 |
Steelers vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this playoff game game with 77.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 62.9% confidence.
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kenny Pickett has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kenny Pickett has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Pat Freiermuth has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kenny Pickett has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Longest Rush Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+0.95 Units / 4% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers went 10-7 (+2.45 Units / 13.07% ROI).
- Steelers are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 9.98% ROI
- Steelers are 6-11 when betting the Over for -6.1 Units / -32.62% ROI
- Steelers are 11-6 when betting the Under for +4.4 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills went 7-10 (-3.85 Units / -20.81% ROI).
- Bills are 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -3.76% ROI
- Bills are 6-11 when betting the Over for -6.1 Units / -32.62% ROI
- Bills are 11-6 when betting the Under for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Steelers are 17-8 (.680) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — 9th-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 54 times since the 2022 season — 5th-most in NFL.
The Steelers are 2-11 (.154) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 35 passes since the 2022 season — 4th-most in NFL.
The Steelers are 8-2 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Steelers are undefeated (4-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .577.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills are 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Bills are 6-1 (.857) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .428.
The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when not forcing a turnover since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .264.
The Bills are winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .339.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have thrown for 7.5 yards per attempt since the 2022 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed 6.9 yards per dropback since the 2022 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have turned the ball over 54 times since the 2022 season — 5th-most in NFL. The Steelers have forced 52 turnovers since the 2022 season — T-4th-most in NFL.
Steelers RBs have averaged 2.0 yards after contact per carry this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 1.8 yards after contact per carry this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Steelers have 13 touchdown passes this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL. The Bills have allowed 18 passing TDs this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Steelers have rushed the ball on 45.2% of plays from scrimmage this season — 5th-highest in NFL. The Bills have allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers have started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Steelers have scored 6 TDs from their own territory this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Steelers have run 34% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Steelers have thrown the ball 20% of the time (70 Pass Attempts/359 plays) on plays under center this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 30%.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have gone three and out on 12% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Bills have run successful plays on 50% of plays in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Bills have run successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills have gone three and out on 10% of their drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Steelers defense has forced 8 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 17% of rush attempts in close and late situations since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Steelers defense has not allowed a first down on any of their opponents’ 12 rush attempts in close and late situations since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 28%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 1 of 551 attempts (0%) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1%.
Offenses facing the Bills have thrown deep balls on just 9% of pass attempts (48/551) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
Only 12% of the plays run against the Bills have been in the red zone this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Bills defense has allowed an average of 5.4 fantasy points per game as a unit to TEs this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 6.9.
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