- The Commanders are -3 point favorites vs the Steelers
- Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (7-2-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Landover, MD.
The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Steelers vs. Commanders Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +130 |
| Commanders | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -155 |
Steelers vs. Commanders Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 52.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Commanders Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 63.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jaylen Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.10 Units / 61% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 85% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 45% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.50 Units / 38% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers art 6-2 (+3.7 Units / 41.81% ROI).
- Steelers are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 34.16% ROI
- Steelers are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Steelers are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / ROI
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 7-1 (+5.9 Units / 58.42% ROI).
- Commanders are 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 48.2% ROI
- Commanders are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Commanders are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Steelers are 10-1 (.909) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .576.
The Steelers are undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .572.
The Steelers were undefeated (4-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .573.
The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .625.
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Commanders were 2-12 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
The Commanders are 7-2 (.778) this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.
The Commanders were 2-8 (.200) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders
No Matchup notes for this Game
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 44.2% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 46.9% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 44.2% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 46.9% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 44.2% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed successful plays on just 46.9% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Steelers have run 30% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Steelers have run successful plays on 8% of plays against a light rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Steelers were flagged 37 times on offense last season — fewest in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have run 24% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Commanders have scored on 61% of their drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.
The Commanders have scored on 61% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Commanders ran 56% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense has not allowed scores on any opponent drives in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 31% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Steelers defense has forced 13 turnovers in the red zone since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense allowed 39 TD passes last season — most in NFL.
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Commanders defense has allowed 53 TD passes since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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