Steelers vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

min read

(AP Photo/Jeff Lewis)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:07 PM

The Steelers are -3 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-0) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (2-3-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Paradise, NV.

The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Steelers vs. Raiders Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Raiders vs Steelers & all NFL games with BetMGM

Steelers vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Steelers	-3 -105	36.5 -110	-155
Raiders	+3 -115	36.5 -110	+130

Steelers vs. Raiders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Steelers vs Raiders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Raiders vs Steelers and all NFL games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Jaylen Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 22% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tre Tucker has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Alexander Mattison has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Aidan O’Connell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)
Gardner Minshew has hit the Interceptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Aidan O’Connell has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 67% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 35% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.55 Units / 48% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have scored first in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 21 games (+4.50 Units / 17% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers art 3-2 (+0.7 Units / 12.39% ROI).

Steelers are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 12.59% ROI
Steelers are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
Steelers are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 2-3 (-1.45 Units / -25.44% ROI).

Raiders are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 6.15% ROI
Raiders are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Raiders are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Steelers are 9-3 (.750) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Raiders has allowed an average time of possession of 30 min and 57 s since the 2023 season — 5th-highest in NFL.

The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .625.

The Steelers were 8-2 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Steelers are winless (0-3) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .183.

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Raiders are winless (0-5) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Raiders were winless (0-8) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Raiders were 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .664.

The Raiders were 5-2 (.714) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have run successful plays on just 27.4% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed successful plays on just 37.4% of rush attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Raiders have averaged just -0.12 epa per play against a base front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed just -0.09 epa per play with a base front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Raiders have scored on 29.5% of their drives this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Steelers defense has allowed scores on 29.4% of opponent drives this season — 4th-best in NFL.

Steelers RBs have averaged 2.4 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 2.0 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Steelers have rushed the ball on 51.6% of plays from scrimmage this season — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 5.3 yards per carry this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Steelers have gone three and out on 26.7% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Raiders have forced three and outs on 31.6% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats

The Steelers were flagged 37 times on offense last season — fewest in NFL.

The Steelers ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts against a base front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Steelers have run successful plays on 19% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Steelers averaged -0.44 epa per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats

The Raiders have averaged -1.25 epa per play against a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.07.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 23% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 27% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 18% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats

The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 49.9 in the red zone (92 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.4.

The Steelers defense have allowed 0.76 epa per play open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Steelers defense has not allowed scores on any opponent drives in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats

The Raiders defense has missed 57 tackles this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders defense have allowed 29 broken tackles this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders defense tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 25 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) in Week 5. — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Raiders defense has allowed a passer rating of just 9.8 on contested throws (14 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 71.9.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Raiders vs Steelers and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!

About the Author