- The Ravens are -6.5 point favorites vs the Steelers
- Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX | FOXD
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4-0) visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens (9-5-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Baltimore, MD.
The Ravens are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Steelers vs. Ravens Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Over/Under
Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
Steelers | +6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +240 |
Ravens | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -300 |
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win this game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Ravens Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- Chris Boswell has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+5.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.10 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Ravens players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ravens Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Lamar Jackson has hit the Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Lamar Jackson has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lamar Jackson has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Lamar Jackson has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Isaiah Likely has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 50% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Ravens vs Steelers
Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
---|---|
Derrick Henry (BAL) | +375 |
Najee Harris (Pit) | +800 |
Zay Flowers (Bal) | +800 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Ravens vs Steelers
Player Name | Over | Under |
---|---|---|
Zay Flowers (BAL) | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 22.5 -115 | 22.5 -115 |
Derrick Henry (BAL) | 1.5 -120 | 1.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Ravens vs Steelers
Player Name | Over | Under |
---|---|---|
Russell Wilson (PIT) | 9.5 -120 | 9.5 -110 |
Derrick Henry (BAL) | 80.5 -115 | 80.5 -115 |
Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 42.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 |
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Ravens Best Bets:
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+7.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers art 10-4 (+5.5 Units / 35.83% ROI).
- Steelers are 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 29.12% ROI
- Steelers are 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Steelers are 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / ROI
Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens are 7-6 (+0.45 Units / 2.9% ROI).
- Ravens are 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -7.2% ROI
- Ravens are 11-3 when betting the Over for +7.7 Units / 50% ROI
- Ravens are 3-11 when betting the Under for -9.1 Units / -59.09% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.
The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .625.
The Steelers were 8-2 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Steelers are winless (0-3) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .204.
Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Ravens are winless (0-3) when scoring less than 22 points this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .235.
The Ravens were 8-1 (.889) when not losing a fumble last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .578.
The Ravens are 8-2 (.800) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .381.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have run successful plays on 64.1% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed successful plays on 58.3% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Ravens ran successful plays on 72.0% of pass attempts last week — best in NFL. The Steelers allowed successful plays on 59.4% of pass attempts last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Ravens ran successful plays on 77.8% of pass attempts with motion last week — best in NFL. The Steelers allowed successful plays on 64.7% of pass attempts against motion last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Steelers have averaged just -0.24 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Ravens have allowed just -0.31 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Steelers were successful on just 33.3% of plays they ran against a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Ravens allowed their opponents to be successful on just 34.0% of plays with a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 40.0% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Ravens have allowed successful plays on just 38.1% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers have averaged 0.33 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Steelers averaged -0.44 epa per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Steelers have averaged 0.85 epa per play on contested throws since Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats
The Ravens have averaged 0.21 epa per play against a base front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Ravens threw for 5 TDs in Week 15 — T-most in NFL.
The Ravens have thrown the ball 14% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/42 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Ravens have rushed for 20+ yards 42 times since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Steelers defense forced 8 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Steelers defense has allowed scores on 13% of opponent drives in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 0.0 with a light rush (0 Pass Attempts) since Week 12 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 110.3.
Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats
The Ravens defense allowed successful plays on 27% of plays with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Ravens defense allowed -0.14 epa per play in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Ravens defense allowed successful plays on 31% of pass attempts with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Ravens defense has stuffed 53% (9/17) of rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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