Packers Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Green Bay

min read
Green Bay Packers' Jordan Love thorws during the second half of an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders Monday, Oct. 9, 2023, in Las Vegas.
(David Becker/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jan 15, 2024, 12:56 PM
  • The Green Bay Packers have +2800 Super Bowl odds.
  • Green Bay has thrived as underdogs against the spread this season.
  • Can the Packers overcome their bad defense to make a deep run?

As of Jan. 15, the Packers Super Bowl odds are +2800, with an implied probability of 3.4%. Prior to the 2024 NFL season, Green Bay was +2500 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

They also possess +1000 odds – an implied probability of 9.0% – to win the NFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook

Both prices represent a massive drop following Green Bay’s seismic win over the Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round. Before that win, Green Bay was +8000 and +4000 to win the Super Bowl and NFC Championship, respectively.

In terms of the Super Bowl, bettors preferred other teams to the Packers. Green Bay received only 1% of all bets and 0.7% of the total handle to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

The Packers offense can cause problems for teams, but their defense is atrocious. 

That leads me to stay away from Green Bay entirely in the NFC futures markets. For my favorite NFC pick, check out my 49ers Super Bowl Prediction

In good news for the Packers, they’ve done very well keeping games close against good teams. This season, Jordan Love finished 7-4 ATS when he closed as an underdog. 

That means Green Bay should play competitive football, even if it only lasts a week against the Cowboys. 

That said, their defensive issues prevent them from making a deep run, in my opinion. 

Green Bay ranked 27th in defensive DVOA this season after facing the seventh-easiest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Even more concerning is that their defense has struggled recently. Since Week 15, they’re 26th in EPA per play and 23rd in defensive success rate. 

In the weeks prior, they ranked 23rd and 26th in the respective categories. 

Even if they make it through the Cowboys, they’ll face the 49ers on extended rest. 

That should prove the end of Green Bay’s run given San Francisco is unbeaten against NFC opposition in meaningful home games since last season. 

That helps explain the sizable price tag on the Packers. However, it’s not nearly enough to interest me.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.