Texans Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Houston

min read
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) signals a play during the first half of an NFL preseason football game against the New Orleans Saints Monday, Aug. 28, 2023, in New Orleans.
(Butch Dill/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jan 15, 2024, 12:48 PM
  • The Houston Texans have +2800 Super Bowl odds.
  • Behind rookie QB C.J. Stroud, Houston won the AFC South at 10-7.
  • If the Texans are to make a deep run, their pass defense needs improvement.

As of Jan. 15, the Texans Super Bowl odds are +2800, with an implied probability of 3.4%. Prior to the NFL season, Houston was +30000 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess +1200 odds – an implied probability of 7.7% – to win the AFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook

Prior to their impressive home win against the Cleveland Browns in the wild-card round, Houston sat at +4000 and +1600 to win the Super Bowl and AFC Championship, respectively.

In terms of the Super Bowl futures market, it should come as no surprise few bettors were interested in the Texans. 

As of Jan. 5, Houston received only 0.8% of all bets and 0.4% of the total handle to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

I would love nothing more than to see a rookie quarterback and head coach make a deep run. However, for my AFC futures angle, check out my Bills Super Bowl Prediction

Simply put, the Texans have an outstanding offense. 

Entering their wild-card matchup against the Browns, Houston ranks 14th in offensive DVOA, including 10th in pass offense, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The key problem? Their offense is largely one-dimensional as they sit 30th in rush offense DVOA, making it easy for opposing defenses to gameplan for Houston’s offense. 

Even if the Texans win against the Browns, I question if they get past the Ravens, their likeliest opponent, if seeds hold. 

Houston managed only nine points in a Week 1 matchup in Baltimore and has largely struggled to score points outdoors. 

Save for a 30-point explosion against the Bengals and 37-point effort against the Jaguars, Houston managed under 20 points in their other four outdoor games. 

Plus, their defense leaves a lot to be desired against the league’s best quarterbacks. 

In good news for the Texans, they’re second in rush defense DVOA. However, they’re 23rd against the pass. 

As a result, head coach DeMeco Ryans’ side offers little upside in the futures market at a steep price.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.