- The Chiefs are -8 point favorites vs the Texans
- Total (Over/Under): 42 points
- Watch this game on ESPN | ABC | ESPN+ | ESPD
The Houston Texans visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Jan. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this AFC Divisional Playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -8 (-110).
The Texans vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.
Bet now on Chiefs vs Texans & all NFL games with BetMGM
Texans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texans | +8 -110 | 42 -110 | +375 |
| Chiefs | -8 -110 | 42 -110 | -500 |
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Texans vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Chiefs vs Texans and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 92% ROI)
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Samaje Perine has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Pass Attempts Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Carson Steele has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Texans
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | +700 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | +750 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | +750 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Texans
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 52.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 78.5 -110 | 78.5 -120 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 11.5 -110 | 11.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Texans
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 56.5 -135 | 56.5 +100 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 21.5 -140 | 21.5 +105 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 37.5 -150 | 37.5 +115 |
| CJ Stroud (HOU) | 12.5 -120 | 12.5 -110 |
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.90 Units / 34% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+4.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans art 8-8 (-0.65 Units / -3.3% ROI).
- Texans are 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 4.33% ROI
- Texans are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4.1 Units / -20.6% ROI
- Texans are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 7-9 (-2.75 Units / -14.91% ROI).
- Chiefs are 15-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.2 Units / 27.85% ROI
- Chiefs are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4 Units / -21.39% ROI
- Chiefs are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Texans were undefeated (6-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .599.
The Texans were winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the first half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .243.
The Texans were undefeated (6-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .611.
The Texans were 6-3 (.667) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Chiefs are 14-6 (.700) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .277.
The Chiefs were undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .566.
The Chiefs were 2-1 (.667) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .249.
The Chiefs were undefeated (11-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .599.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 34% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 37% of plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans did not convert a first down on 8 plays (0%) on second and 1-3 yards to go in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65%.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chiefs averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
The Chiefs went three and out on 14% of their drives last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.69 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.47.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
Only 39% of the plays ran against the Texans were in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
Only 7% of the plays ran against the Texans were in the red zone in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
Only 10% of the plays ran against the Texans were in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense allowed 93.7 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 126.8.
The Chiefs defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 6 of 155 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Chiefs defense allowed just 4.5 yards per dropback (675 yards/150 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Chiefs vs Texans and all NFL games with BetMGM
More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
More NFL Odds at BetMGM
Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.
From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.
And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.
Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!
