- The Chiefs are -3.5 point favorites vs the Texans
- Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC | TELE | UNIV
The Houston Texans (9-5-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (13-1-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Texans vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.
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Texans vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texans | +3.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +155 |
| Chiefs | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -190 |
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Texans vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in his last 8 away games (+8.40 Units / 79% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.60 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.45 Units / 70% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.87 Units / 33% ROI)
- Carson Steele has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.80 Units / 97% ROI)
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Texans
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | +400 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | +650 |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | +700 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | +850 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Texans
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -115 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (KC) | 39.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 41.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 27.5 -115 | 27.5 -115 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 25.5 -120 | 25.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Texans
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 56.5 +100 | 56.5 -135 |
| CJ Stroud (HOU) | 10.5 -110 | 10.5 -120 |
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games (+13.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 18 of their last 22 games (+13.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+7.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans art 6-6 (-0.5 Units / -3.26% ROI).
- Texans are 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 2.82% ROI
- Texans are 4-9 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -38.71% ROI
- Texans are 9-4 when betting the Under for +4.6 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 5-8 (-3.65 Units / -24.17% ROI).
- Chiefs are 13-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.2 Units / 28.24% ROI
- Chiefs are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Chiefs are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Texans are 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .316.
The Texans are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .628.
The Texans were 7-3 (.700) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Texans were 10-5 (.667) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .594.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Chiefs are undefeated (9-0) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs are undefeated (5-0) when not forcing a turnover this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .316.
The Chiefs are 13-5 (.722) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .274.
The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 61.1% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Texans have pressured opposing QBs on 14.3% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 27.7% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Texans have pressured opposing QBs on 27.6% of passing plays since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.
Chiefs WRs have averaged 5.8 yards after the catch this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 5.4 yards after catch per reception to WRs this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Texans have been successful on just 36.6% of plays they have run with motion this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.5% of plays against motion this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Texans have run successful plays on just 33.8% of rush attempts with motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on just 37.2% of rush attempts against motion this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Texans ran just 31.9% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs allowed their opponents to runjust 23.7% of plays in their territory last week — best in NFL.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans averaged -0.19 epa per play against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 67% of plays against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.70 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.48.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 68% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Only 38% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 9% of plays with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of plays in the 1st half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed an average of 15.2 fantasy points per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.9.
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense had 4 interceptions in Week 15 — T-most in NFL.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 9% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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