Texans vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

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(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 12:41 PM

The Texans are -5 point favorites vs the Jaguars
Total (Over/Under): 43 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Houston Texans (7-5-0) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Jacksonville, FL.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).

The Texans vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texans	-5 -110	43 -110	-225
Jaguars	+5 -110	43 -110	+185

Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 79.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Jaguars Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 51.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in his last 7 away games (+7.20 Units / 74% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 65% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 62% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 63% ROI)
Joe Mixon has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 48% ROI)
Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 42% ROI)
Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
D’Ernest Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
Brian Thomas Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+5.25 Units / 34% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.85 Units / 40% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.85 Units / 33% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+3.85 Units / 13% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 66% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+3.15 Units / 18% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.15 Units / 15% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans art 5-6 (-1.5 Units / -11.54% ROI).

Texans are 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -4.78% ROI
Texans are 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.8 Units / -28.57% ROI
Texans are 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 6-5 (+0.45 Units / 3.67% ROI).

Jaguars are 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -52.32% ROI
Jaguars are 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Jaguars are 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans are 5-1 (.833) when passing for 250 or more yards this season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 278.3 passing yards per game this season — worst in NFL.

The Texans are 12-3 (.800) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 254.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Texans are winless (0-8) vs top 10 defenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .454.

The Texans were 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Jaguars are winless (0-9) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .393.

The Jaguars are winless (0-3) vs top 10 pass offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.

The Jaguars are 2-9 (.182) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Jaguars are 1-6 (.143) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have run just 38.9% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponents to run just 36.6% of plays in their territory this season — best in NFL.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on 62.5% of rush attempts against a light front this season — best in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on 75.0% of rush attempts with a light front this season — worst in NFL.

Jaguars RBs have averaged 2.6 yards after contact per carry this season — T-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 2.2 yards after contact per carry this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Texans have a third down conversion rate of 25.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 22.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Texans have thrown for 7,545 passing yards in 29 games (260.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 254.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Texans are 5-1 (.833) when passing for 250 or more yards this season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 278.3 passing yards per game this season — worst in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 30% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have faced a blitz 151 times this season — most in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars have run 30% of their plays in their opponent’s territory since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Jaguars have run 32% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 12 of 32 plays (38%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Jaguars have turned the ball over on downs 9 times in the red zone since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense sacked opposing QBs on 24% of pass attempts (8/33) in Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: 8%.

Only 37% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

Only 9% of the plays run against the Texans have been in the red zone in the 1st half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense has allowed 6 TDs on first drive of the game this season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense has allowed 52 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 76% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Jaguars defense allowed 3 TD passes in close and late situations last season — T-most in NFL.

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