Texans vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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Patriots player number 38 running with NFL game ball in hand.

(Winslow Townson/AP Images)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:06 PM

The Texans are -7 point favorites vs the Patriots
Total (Over/Under): 38 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Houston Texans (4-1-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (1-4-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough, MA.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Texans vs. Patriots Over/Under is 38 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texans	-7 -110	38 -110	-350
Patriots	+7 -110	38 -110	+260

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
Robert Woods has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 47% ROI)
Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 55% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Joe Mixon has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

Antonio Gibson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Antonio Gibson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 42% ROI)
Demario Douglas has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.10 Units / 31% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.80 Units / 20% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+4.50 Units / 36% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.90 Units / 41% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 40% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.90 Units / 21% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.90 Units / 10% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.60 Units / 8% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans art 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -41.82% ROI).

Texans are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 28.57% ROI
Texans are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -62.5% ROI
Texans are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 1-3 (-2.2 Units / -40.74% ROI).

Patriots are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.9 Units / -18% ROI
Patriots are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Patriots are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Texans are 10-2 (.833) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 50 s since the 2023 season — 3rd-highest in NFL.

The Texans are 12-5 (.706) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Patriots have turned the ball over 37 times since the 2023 season — T-3rd-most in NFL.

The Texans are winless (0-5) vs top 10 defenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .468.

The Texans were 3-1 (.750) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .513.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Patriots are 1-9 (.100) at home since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .548.

The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .324.

The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

The Patriots were winless (0-11) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have been successful on just 36.6% of plays they have ran this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 37.0% of plays this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Patriots have been successful on just 36.4% of plays they have ran against a base front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 34.8% of plays with a base front this season — best in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on just 35.7% of pass attempts this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 36.7% of pass attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Texans have run successful plays on 44.1% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on just 16.9% of passing plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Texans RBs have averaged just 1.6 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 1.7 yards after contact per carry to RBs since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL.

The Texans are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 3.7 yards per carry since the 2023 season — best in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 31% of plays against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.

The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have averaged -0.52 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (9 completions/30 attempts) in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Texans defense allowed opponents to catch just 9 of 29 passes (31% Reception Pct) in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 67%.

The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 7% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense has allowed 1 TD on first drive of the game since the 2023 season — fewest in NFL.

The Patriots defense allowed 6.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (5,375 yards / 850 touches) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.

The Patriots defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 47 of 591 carries (8%) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Patriots defense has allowed a passer rating of 112.8 when the opposing QB has scrambled (14 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 62.3.

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