- The Texans are predicted to be -6.5-point favorites against the Bears.
- Houston finished 6-2 SU in eight home games with C.J. Stroud last season.
- My prediction for Sunday’s game is Tank Dell’s Longest Reception Prop.
Week 2’s Sunday Night Football matchup pits two upstart young quarterbacks against one another: C.J. Stroud vs. Caleb Williams.
The Texans are home favorites after starting 1-0. As slight road favorites in Indianapolis, Houston earned a 29-27 win.
The Bears, meanwhile, captured an improbable result. After falling behind 17-0 against the Titans, a special teams and defensive score with three field goals gave them a 24-17 win.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my Texans vs. Bears prediction.
Texans vs. Bears Odds
- Houston Texans Moneyline: -275
- Chicago Bears Moneyline: +225
- Game Spread: Houston Texans -6.5 (-110)
- Game Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Texans vs. Bears Prediction, SNF
My prediction for Texans vs. Bears on Sunday Night Football is Tank Dell Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-120).
If the Bears continue to run zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, it opens up massive opportunities for Dell.
Per PFF, only five teams ran zone coverage at a higher rate than Chicago last week.
In Week 2, they face a Texans offense that saw Nico Collins and Dell finish seventh and eighth in PFF’s receiver grades against zone coverage last season.
Dell specifically excelled against this prop, so long as he wasn’t facing a top-10 passing defense.
In his last eight games against teams 11th or worse in EPA per play allowed, he’s 5-3 to the over against this number.
Just when he plays inside, Dell is 4-1 to the over.
Plus, Dell counted himself amongst the deepest route runners against zone coverage.
Only four players finished with a higher average depth of target against zone coverage last year than Dell.
That renders this a great sell-high spot on Chicago, who held Will Levis to a longest completion of 22 yards. However, don’t expect it to work against Houston.
Another Texans vs. Bears Prediction for Sunday Night Football is the Houston Spread (-0.5) as the first leg of a two-team, six-point teaser.
Houston is 6-2 SU at home with C.J. Stroud as their starting quarterback. The only two losses came in divisional contests.
Chicago was so lucky to win last week. They managed only 148 yards of total offense with two touchdowns via a blocked punt and an interception.
History suggests the Bears are primed to lose on Sunday night.
Favorites at -6 or higher off a win against a team that registered under 200 yards of offense the previous week are 60-8 SU. At home, they’re 45-5.
For additional legs I believe make the best pairings with Houston, check out my NFL Teaser Picks This Week.
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