Titans vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2024, 5:13 PM

The Dolphins are -1 point favorites vs the Titans
Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
Watch this game on ESPN

The Tennessee Titans (0-3-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (1-2-0) on Sep. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami Gardens, FL.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Titans vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.

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Titans vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Titans	+1 -110	36.5 -110	+100
Dolphins	-1 -110	36.5 -110	-120

Titans vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Titans will win this game with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Titans vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Titans will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Titans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Titans Player Prop Bets Today

Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Tyjae Spears has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Treylon Burks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 41% ROI)
Calvin Ridley has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.15 Units / 44% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 56% ROI)
Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 62% ROI)
Raheem Mostert has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Odell Beckham Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)

Titans Best Bets:

The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 38% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.75 Units / 31% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 13% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.15 Units / 10% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.20 Units / 55% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.15 Units / 58% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.75 Units / 28% ROI)

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans art 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

Titans are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -100% ROI
Titans are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
Titans are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

Dolphins are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -32.94% ROI
Dolphins are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Dolphins are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Titans were 1-2 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Titans were winless (0-8) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Titans were 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

The Titans are 1-8 (.111) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .461.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Dolphins are 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .568.

The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Dolphins were 4-4 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have run successful plays on just 44.4% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed successful plays on just 41.9% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on just 34.4% of pass attempts last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Titans allowed successful plays on just 36.8% of pass attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL.

The Dolphins went three and out on 41.7% of their drives last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Titans forced three and outs on 40% of opponent drives last week — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Titans have gone three and out on 34.3% of their drives this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have forced three and outs on 30.3% of opponent drives this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Titans have run just 37.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to run just 40.1% of plays in their territory since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Titans have scored on 10% of their drives in the second half this season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 6.7% of opponent drives in the second half this season — best in NFL.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats

The Titans have run 20% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Titans allowed a QB hit on 29% of pass attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Titans have scored on 16% of their drives in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Titans have committed 9 turnovers this season — most in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.71 epa per play against a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Dolphins have turned the ball over on downs 9 times this season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 6 of 17 plays (35%) in short yardage situations since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats

The Titans defense has allowed successful plays on 75% of plays on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Titans defense allowed 9 broken tackles in Week 3 — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Titans defense has allowed successful plays on 75% of pass attempts on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Titans defense has allowed 10 rushing TDs on 96 carries (9.6 Carries Per TD) in the red zone since the 2022 season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 77% of pass attempts first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 77% of plays first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 22% when blitzing since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed successful plays on 75% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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