- The Steelers are three-point favorites against the Titans.
- Pittsburgh lost at home to the Jaguars in Week 8.
- Titans are outstanding as underdogs, including Week 8 home win.
The Week 9 NFL slate gets underway on Thursday night, and I’m set to provide a Steelers vs. Titans prediction.
The Steelers, on the heels of a two-game winning streak, lost at home to the Jaguars in Week 8.
As for Tennessee, they ended a two-game losing streak by capturing a home win against the Falcons on Sunday.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Thursday Night Football as well as my bets for the contest.
Steelers vs. Titans Betting Odds
- Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline: -150
- Tennessee Titans Moneyline: +125
- Game Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-115)
- Game Total: 36 Points
Steelers vs. Titans Predictions
Tennessee Titans Spread (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Buying high off Will Levis’ outstanding performance feels risky, but this makes too much sense.
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is historically brilliant as an underdog. For his career, he’s 23-22 straight up and 27-17-1 ATS in such spots.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is also outstanding as a dog, but the results when he’s favored are wildly different.
For his lengthy career, Tomlin is 82-94-2 ATS as a favorite.
The Titans also match a historically profitable betting system: underdogs with low totals. Dating back to 2018-19, underdogs in games with a total less than 42 points are 59.2% ATS.
Pittsburgh also likely won’t feature Kenny Pickett, hampering their ability to take advantage of Tennessee’s pass defense.
Assuming the Titans don’t part with Derrick Henry and Deandre Hopkins, back them at +3 or better on Thursday night.
Jaylen Warren Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Warren has emerged as a solid passing threat for the Steelers.
In seven games this season, he’s amassed 20 or more yards in all but two, including a 66-yard performance against the Browns.
The Titans excel against the run – they’re second in rush defense DVOA – but have displayed vulnerabilities against the pass.
Tennessee ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA, including 16th in pass defense DVOA against running backs, per ftnfantasy.com.
They’re also 31st in DVOA on short passes and rank 27th in completion percentage allowed to their opponents.
That should leave opportunities for Warren, who’s received at least five targets in all but two games this season.
Derrick Henry Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Barring a surprise return from Steelers defensive tackle Cam Heyward, Henry should clear this number.
The Alabama product has surpassed this number in three of his last four games and faces a weak Steelers rush defense.
Pittsburgh sits 24th in adjusted line yards allowed per attempt, including 27th in open field yards allowed, per ftnfantasy.com.
They’re simultaneously 27th in opponent yards per rush attempt. Just last week against Travis Etienne, Pittsburgh allowed 79 yards.
All told, the Steelers have held only one opponent under 100 rushing yards this season.
Barring the Titans dealing Henry, take the over on his rushing yards prop Thursday.
Same-Game Parlay: Titans Spread (+7.5) & Total Under 39.5 Points (+120)
I like the Titans an unhealthy amount this week, but I just can’t see the Steelers blowing them out.
As outlined in my NFL Week 9 Picks & Predictions, Mike Vrabel is outstanding as an underdog. For his career, he’s 27-17-1 ATS as a dog, including 17-10 when he’s +3.5 or higher.
For added safety, I’ll take the Titans up from +3 to +7.5.
Regarding the total, my confidence stems from both teams’ defensive records. Pittsburgh ranks ninth in defensive DVOA, while the Titans are 11th in that category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Low totals also have a historical tendency to finish under the number. Since 2017-18, totals at or below 38 points – the real number is 36.5 – are 58.9% to the under.
Primetime unders also tend to hit at a high rate. Since 2018-19, standalone games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday are 59.2% to the under.
NFL Betting Odds at BetMGM
BetMGM is the premier destination for NFL betting odds throughout the season.
Whether you’re a new bettor checking out weekly spreads, a casual fan tracking live NFL betting odds, or a longtime football building moneyline parlays, and more there’s something for everyone at the best online sportsbook.